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Valuation Does not Matter – Until it Does

Valuation Does not Matter – Until it Does

Valuation Does not Matter – Until it Does

Businesses can fire on all cylinders, and yet a lost decade for their share price can loom as valuations stretch beyond reason. The lesson? History shows valuation does not matter – until, suddenly, it does.

Thierry Borgeat vor 44 Minuten

Interview «President Trump Is Going to Be Disciplined by the Bond Market»

«Voters didn’t elect Trump to begin a massive trade war. Especially in the context of prices, as tariffs would increase price levels»: Marko Papic. (Photo: Bloomberg)

«President Trump Is Going to Be Disciplined by the Bond Market»

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, warns that rising interest rates could stall the rally in equities. President Trump will focus on his true mandates and that does not necessarily mean a massive trade war.

Mark Dittli 15.11.2024

Interview «It’s Time to Position the Portfolio for Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar»

«I don’t know if everybody is ready for the idea that by the end of the year the Fed’s whole interest rate cutting campaign will be mostly done if not completely done»: Jim Bianco. (Photo: Bloomberg)

«It’s Time to Position the Portfolio for Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar»

Donald Trump’s election and the Republican red wave are setting the financial markets in motion. Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, believes that the change of power in Washington will give the US economy a fresh boost. However, it also poses the risk of inflation flaring up again, which will be a challenge for investors.

Christoph Gisiger vor 2 Stunden

Interview «In Terms of Inflation, the Beast is not Tamed»

«It’s a little too early to tell whether it’s a soft landing or a no landing, but it sure doesn’t look like a hard landing»: Jeffrey Sherman (left) and Bill Campbell.

«In Terms of Inflation, the Beast is not Tamed»

Jeffrey Sherman and Bill Campbell, investment managers at DoubleLine, expect price pressures in the US economy to continue. They explain what the presidential election means for the economy and financial markets – and where they spot attractive opportunities for investments.

Christoph Gisiger 05.11.2024

Interview «China Hopes That America Under Trump Will Turn its Back on the World»

«Beijing is very enthusiastic about the fact that Trump will question NATO and America’s aid for Ukraine»: Joerg Wuttke.

«China Hopes That America Under Trump Will Turn its Back on the World»

Joerg Wuttke, Partner at consulting agency DGA and former President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, on the latest stimulus measures from Beijing and how the US elections will influence the relationship between the US and China.

Mark Dittli 08.10.2024

Risk vs. Reward: Your Margin of Safety is Razor-Thin

Risk vs. Reward: Your Margin of Safety is Razor-Thin

Risk vs. Reward: Your Margin of Safety is Razor-Thin

The market’s over-reliance on a few giants is skewing risk-reward dynamics, squeezing your margin of safety to a razor-thin line. High valuations, shrinking diversification, and misplaced capital challenge investors to rethink conventional strategies.

Thierry Borgeat vor 2 Stunden

The Economy is Less Volatile in Switzerland than in the US and the Euro Area

The Economy is Less Volatile in Switzerland than in the US and the Euro Area

The Economy is Less Volatile in Switzerland than in the US and the Euro Area

We find that inflation and per capita income growth fluctuated less in Switzerland than in the euro area and the US during the period that Thomas Jordan was a member of the board of the SNB. Variables such as the exchange rate, the policy rate and bond yields also show lower volatility.

Karsten Junius vor 4 Stunden

Interview «The Future Winners Will Be in Sectors such as Industrials, Materials and Energy»

«In a pie chart of outcomes, the probability of a beautiful soft landing without a bond market riot is a narrow slice»: Marko Papic. (Photo: Bloomberg)

«The Future Winners Will Be in Sectors such as Industrials, Materials and Energy»

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, talks about the risk of a bond riot in the US, scenarios for the presidential election, and the most attractive investment opportunities in the coming years.

Mark Dittli vor 1 Stunde

Interview «We Will See More Spikes in Inflation»

«We’re going to find more situations where the Fed takes a chance on inflation rising rather than having high unemployment»: Kenneth Rogoff. (Photo: Bloomberg)

«We Will See More Spikes in Inflation»

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, argues that the financial markets are at a turning point. In his view, investors must brace themselves for an environment with higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher volatility in the coming years.

Christoph Gisiger vor 3 Stunden

Boring is Good

Boring is Good

In a world addicted to instant gratification, the greatest investment advantage lies in patience. High quality, «boring» stocks are persistently undervalued and offer superior returns over time. This challenges conventional wisdom and proves: boring is good.

Thierry Borgeat vor 1 Stunde

Interview «China’s Massive Build-out of Semiconductor Manufacturing Capacity is Scary»

«China’s gigantic capacity build-out is going to be a particular problem for European companies such as NXP Semiconductors, STMicroelectronics and Infineon»: Jonathan Goldberg.

«China’s Massive Build-out of Semiconductor Manufacturing Capacity is Scary»

The global semiconductor industry is in a fundamental transformation. Jonathan Goldberg, Partner at Snowcloud Capital and Founder of D2D Advisory, talks about the competition for the fastest chips for artificial intelligence, China’s counter-offensive in the face of US boycott measures and Intel’s chances of survival.

Christoph Gisiger 21.08.2024

Interview «The World Is not Willing to Absorb the Overproduction Coming Out of China»

«If you build something useless that costs you 100, and you put it on your balance sheet and say that you are now richer by the amount of 100, you are fooling yourself. It’s worth zero»: Michael Pettis.

«The World Is not Willing to Absorb the Overproduction Coming Out of China»

Beijing-based economist Michael Pettis expects global trade conflicts to escalate. China is reaching the limits of its growth model, but Beijing is avoiding painful adjustments.

Mark Dittli 25.07.2024

Interview «Something that Has as Much Excitement as Gen AI Is Going to Have a Bubble»

«There’s a joke, but it’s also kind of an observation, that we call it artificial intelligence if it doesn’t work yet. But once it works, we just call it software»: Benedict Evans. (Photo: YouTube)

«Something that Has as Much Excitement as Gen AI Is Going to Have a Bubble»

Tech analyst Benedict Evans talks about the most important trends regarding generative artificial intelligence, fundamental philosophical questions when it comes to thinking about this technology as well as opportunities and risks for incumbents such as Microsoft, Apple and Alphabet.

Christoph Gisiger 24.07.2024

Hold Tennis Balls and Sell Eggs

Hold Tennis Balls and Sell Eggs

Hold Tennis Balls and Sell Eggs

The idea is a straightforward strategy to navigate market corrections, identify strong stocks and secure consistent gains. The question you need to ask yourself is simple: do I own a tennis ball or an egg?

Thierry Borgeat 16.07.2024

Interview «The Playing Field for China is Getting Narrower and Narrower»

«A lot of rich Chinese are moving away. They are not leaving China for good, but they are building up a foothold, just in case. Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Singapore and Japan are popular»: Joerg Wuttke.

«The Playing Field for China is Getting Narrower and Narrower»

Joerg Wuttke, former President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, on the country’s economic prospects, the rising trade conflict with the EU and the question of who Beijing would prefer to see in the White House.

Mark Dittli 05.07.2024

Interview «The Failure of Credit Suisse Should Be Causing Sleepless Nights»

«In terms of national welfare, the way UBS was able to absorb CS might not be a triumph»: Paul Tucker. (Picture: PT)

«The Failure of Credit Suisse Should Be Causing Sleepless Nights»

Paul Tucker, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, minces no words in his criticism of the Swiss authorities in dealing with the failure of Credit Suisse. Lessons must be learned from this, he says, both in Switzerland with UBS and in other countries.

Mark Dittli 28.06.2024

Interview «Gross returns of 15 to 20% are possible»

«Gross returns of 15 to 20% are possible»

«Gross returns of 15 to 20% are possible»

Pimco President Christian Stracke is deploying capital aggressively into emergency loans for highly indebted companies, often owned by private equity funds. However, he expects cumulative defaults of 15% for speculative grade companies until 2026, which will weigh down global growth.

Mark Böschen ✉ 24.06.2024

Interview «The Silver Market is Experiencing a Deficit for the Third Consecutive Year»

«As long as our population continues to grow, the mining industry will remain essential for providing the additional metals we need»: Michael Steinmann. (Photo: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg)

«The Silver Market is Experiencing a Deficit for the Third Consecutive Year»

Michael Steinmann, CEO of the mining group Pan American Silver, talks about the robust growth in demand for the precious metal, declining global inventories as well as the company’s opportunities and challenges when it comes to new mining projects.

Christoph Gisiger 14.06.2024

Interview «European Super Majors are more Attractive than their US Rivals»

Petrol station owned by Reliance BP Mobility near Mumbai: The fossil fuel business is delivering large profits. (Dhiraj Singh/ Bloomberg)

«European Super Majors are more Attractive than their US Rivals»

Despite recent record price highs for copper and gold, BlackRock fund manager Alastair Bishop sees strong balance sheets and disciplined investment strategies at natural resources companies. Instead of high-risk projects as in the past, they are now preferring share buybacks.

Mark Böschen ✉ vor 4 Stunden

The Stock Market's «Great Paradox»

The Stock Market's «Great Paradox»

The Stock Market's «Great Paradox»

This is the «Great Paradox» of the stock market: What seems expensive and too high usually continues to go higher, and what seems cheap and too low usually continues to go lower. The message is clear: buy high, sell higher.

Thierry Borgeat vor 4 Stunden

Interview «Valuation Is Not as Important as Quality»

Terry Smith: «We like companies that make money from a large number of everyday, repetitive, relatively predictable events and transactions». (Quelle: ZVG)

«Valuation Is Not as Important as Quality»

Fund manager Terry Smith, founder and CIO of Fundsmith, consistently favors quality companies. In this interview, he talks about the merits of Novo Nordisk, which of the «Magnificent Seven» stocks he likes, and which shares he would buy – if they were cheaper.

Sandro Rosa vor 4 Stunden

European equities are enjoying a 1990s revival Market conditions are reminiscent of the soft landing that followed Alan Greenspan’s Fed pivot.

European equities are enjoying a 1990s revival

European equities are enjoying a 1990s revival

Market conditions are reminiscent of the soft landing that followed Alan Greenspan’s Fed pivot.

Marina Zavolock 07.05.2024

Interview «Artificial Intelligence Holds a Lot of Potential for the Pharma Sector»

«ASML is one of the most attractive investments in the entire stock market universe»: Richard Carlyle. (Picture: Capital Group)

«Artificial Intelligence Holds a Lot of Potential for the Pharma Sector»

Richard Carlyle, Equity Investment Director of US asset management giant Capital Group, on the winners and losers among the «Magnificent Seven» and the advantages of European and Japanese equities.

Mark Dittli ✉️ vor 3 Stunden

Interview «China will have no choice but to become more repressive, more closed, colder»

«This is not a situation where you can simply digest the debt through growth because growth has been created by debt – and there isn’t any sort of organic growth within the Chinese economy»: Anne Stevenson-Yang.

«China will have no choice but to become more repressive, more closed, colder»

In her new book «Wild Ride», China expert Anne Stevenson-Yang argues that China’s experiment with capitalism has failed. In this in-depth interview, she explains why Beijing is now closing the Chinese economy again – and what the consequences are for the financial markets.

Christoph Gisiger 01.05.2024

Could the Fed Raise Interest Rates in 2024?

Could the Fed Raise Interest Rates in 2024?

Could the Fed Raise Interest Rates in 2024?

Only a few months ago, market participants expected the Fed to cut policy rates significantly in 2024. This expectation has turned out to be wrong. Now investors are anxiously contemplating the question of more rate hikes to come.

Stefan Gerlach 29.04.2024

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