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Open Blog | Gnostic Capital Management - Randolph McDuff
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My Single Greatest Investment Mistake.

…”In closing, I look forward to future communication with a FELLOW VALUE INVESTOR“. More than a decade back, I penned an article indicating my decision to forever abandon “value investing”. The choice was made upon a preponderance of real world

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“Lithium-ion Batteries Have Ruled for Decades. Now They Have a Challenger.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2024/11/03/sodium-ion-batteries-sustainable-alternative/ Some observations readily identify runways for wide-scale adoption of sodium-ion battery technology. 56% of the global population is urban. That percentage is growing, not declining. The typical American commuter drives an average of just 41 miles per day round-trip.

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OpenAI Telegraphs Potential Growth Up and Down the AI Food Chain.

The private market valuation of OpenAI indicates that the runway for Artificial Intelligence may be much larger than street analysts cluster around. In the most recent round of private capital raising, OpenAI has achieved a valuation in excess of $150

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The First Rule of Gnostic Capital…

For much of August and September, I typically hand scythe nitrogen/carbon on an organic property in the middle of nowhere. On a farm purchase, I discovered an Austrian grass scythe a while back. It is durable and has no moving

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A Trade, by any Other Name…..

Let’s be crystal clear on one thing; equity rebalancing, automatic or otherwise, is TRADING. We have been advised and schooled by professional investors, finance profs, investment laureates of all stripes, that we should sell off losers and maintain winners. This

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Gnostic Portfolio Return for the 3rd Quarter Ended 30/09/24.

Major market indexes continued to post a consistent equity advance for the third quarter of 2024. The DJIA advanced by 8.3%. The S&P 500 increased by 4.9% and the NASDAQ Composite index grew by 2.6%. As for the Gnostic Global

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Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR-NASDAQ, $32.70) to be Added to the S&P 500 Index.

Palantir Technologies will replace American Airlines in the coming reconfiguration of the index. The inclusion caps off a news heavy quarter with Palantir producing a variety of releases, on a number of fronts, affirming the AI capabilities of the business

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Adyen NV (ADYEY-OTC, $13.92) EBITDA Margin Improving on Strong US Revenue Growth.

Adyen reported revenues and profits for the first half of fiscal 2024 somewhat ahead of previously reduced guidance. First half revenues surpassed $1 billion US with EBITDA pushing past $460 million US, for an overall EBITDA margin of 46.3%. Growth

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Gnostic Portfolio Return for the Quarter Ended 06/30/24

For the Q2 2024 fiscal quarter, the DJIA produced a return of -1.7%. The S&P 500 index appreciated by 3.9%. The NASDAQ composite index appreciated by 8.2%. In contrast, the Gnostic Capital Portfolio declined from $1,009.14 to $1,004.40, a fall

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Moves by the New Leftist Government in Mexico to Remove Judiciary Powers and Regulatory Oversight Potentially Represent a Threat to Current Airport Concessions.

The supermajority Mexican Morena party government have cast a legitimate pall upon any Mexican business operating with a government granted concession. A 2/3 elected majority are highly likely to push through sweeping revisions to the Mexican constitution. Among the constitutional

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EBITDA Margins Inevitably win out over Bias Selection , Even for Those Deemed to be Legendary in Status.

According to an interview with Nikkei Asia in April 2023, Berkshire Hathaway swapped out almost the entirety (90%) of a $4.1 billion dollar investment in Taiwan Semiconductor, with the remaining shares sold some months later, for what was estimated to

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2 Scientific Breakthroughs Should Further Tilt the Scale Towards Sodium-Ion Commercialization.

The Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) has detailed a technology advance in Sodium Ion battery technology that, if replicated, could overcome one of the major hurdles limiting mass adoption of electric vehicles, the slow charge rates for

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Another Perspective to Frame the Role of the “Big 3” Pharmacy Benefit Managers.

Contained within UnitedHealth Group (UNH-NYSE, $504.68), The Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $352.38) and CVS Health Corporation (CVS-NYSE, $69.65) are three separate divisions poorly understood by retail, and to some extent, glossed over by institutional investors in terms of business upside. These

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Federal Reserve Governor Mentions the Unthinkable: That Fed Funding Rates may not Have Peaked.

What would the investment world do with their modeling, were the current interest rate environment be designated, not as a “peak”, but rather, a “floor”? For the second time this week, both a present Federal reserve governor and a former

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Observations; Learned & Earned, on the 100-BAGGER Portfolio Return.

In a smallish western film titled Appaloosa, a US Marshall and his deputy are tasked with arresting and/or killing several criminals trying to facilitate a prison break. Preceding the battle is a typical build-up of tension, with the heroes and

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Gnostic Portfolio Return for the Quarter Ended 03/28/2024.

For Q1, 2024 the 3 US representative indexes posted the following returns. DJIA: 5.6%. S&P 500: 10.2% NASDAQ Composite: 9.1% For Q1, 2024, the Gnostic Global Portfolio started the year off with a valuation of $845.43 per share and closed

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Eli Lilly and the “Oprahmercial”.

Oprahmercial: an infomercial designed specifically for the financial betterment of Oprah Winfrey. Monday’s one hour prime time special on GLP-1 weight loss drugs was a not-so-subtle attempt to put the thumb on the scale of the weight loss duopoly in

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Oprah Winfrey’s Decision to Abandon Traditional Weight Loss Treatments in Favor of Pharmaceutically Driven Options Will Likely Accelerate Prescription Flows for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Oprah Winfrey’s public statements, and decision to step away from the Weight Watcher’s brand, is as clear an indication of the shift away from lifestyle choices towards weight management, in favor of pharmaceutical options, as can be intimated. There really

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Geopolitical Risk Modeling on Russian Invasion of Ukraine may not pay Enough Heed to a Munitions Problem.

Investment modeling attempts to take into account as many variables as possible, but almost never starts with a clean slate. There is always a posit at the outset, and modeling either refutes it, supports it or straddles the fence. Modeling

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Grupo Chedraui (CHDRAUIB.MX, $7.84 USD) Raises Dividend, Forecasts Improved Operating Margins in 2024 and Provides Color on Supercito Format.

The Grupo Chedraui Q4 conference call offered insights that suggest a Chedraui has designs upon mimicking the highly successful ALDI format, in Mexico. The Supercito banner in Mexico operated by Grupo Chedraui represents a relatively novel venture. Small footprint local

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The Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $316.62) Raises 2024 Guidance, Beats on 2023 Earnings and Increases Dividend.

Cigna announced the sale of their Medicare Advantage business, with a planned close in 2025. The planned sale represents the complete exit by Cigna from government payor retiree healthcare programs. At a potential all-in price of $3.7 billion, the profit

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM-NYSE, $110.18 US) Provides a 2024 Revenue Forecast +20% above 2023 Rates.

TSM, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, surpassed analyst expectations for the final quarter of 2023. Revenue was $19.62 billion US, down 4.6% from the prior year. Earnings, at $1.44 per share, were down 23% from the $1.87 US reported

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Grupo Comercial Chedraui (CHDRAUIB-MX, $5.97 US) Announces 2024 Guidance.

Grupo Chedraui, the fast growing Mexican and US grocer, provided their modeling template on US and Mexican expansion. A total of 16 larger grocery stores (grocers and supercenters) as well as 100 of the smaller format (supercito) mini-grocers, for a

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If Lithium Ion Battery technology is Supplanted, am I in for a Complimentary Room Upgrade?

The entirety of the lithium-ion battery industry, as well as the major players in the EV automotive industry, fail to acknowledge the potentially fatal flaw in the marketing of their wares to consumers and governments; a basic accounting term known

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Gnostic Capital Portfolio Report for the Fiscal Quarter Ended 12/30/2023 and for Fiscal 2023.

The fiscal 4th quarter of 2023 produced a broadly based rally among all classes of equity index in North America. The DJIA increased by 12.5% in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced 11.2% and the NASDAQ Composite Index continued its turnaround

Posted in Open Blog
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