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They're Hiding the Silent Depression That Did Happen December 01, 2023
Fifteen years ago this month, amidst the unholy darkness some daylight had emerged; at least according to the official version. The fact it had shown through with Chinese characteristics was actually an invited development. Even President Bush, the l...
Nothing Has Materially Changed Since August 2007 November 17, 2023
Wall Street was absolutely abuzz. The day before, it all seemed to be going just fine. Then, bam, a hammer blow to the face. At least that was how it was described by the financial press. The government had gone way too far and now it was going to ha...
The Fed Is Ready To Start Digging Out Of the Avalanche November 03, 2023
Interest rate swap spreads have gone ballistic this month, a sign that things are not well across the eurodollar’s world. And that’s putting it mildly. The 10-year spread which compares the rate for receiving/paying fixed on a 10-year interest rate s...
The Chain Linking Rome and Mexico City To You and Me October 20, 2023
What does the credibility of the Italian government have to do with the fortunes of Mexico’s peso? Those are two things most people would never connect yet they aren’t just drawn together by a common thread, that same thread also ties together pretty...
The Cure For High Prices That Weren't Actually Inflation October 06, 2023
Could it really have been that fast? Just last week I was writing here in this space that Saudi Arabia was likely to regret its big gamble. The oil-producing giant had bet the world’s fate, seemingly, on the idea the global economy would be strong en...
The Dollar Is Back To Rampaging Against Every Major Currency September 29, 2023
You know what they say about when you have “friends” like these. Trading across the oil market this week is one for the books, if the familiar set of them. The WTI curve blew way out in a matter of days as desperate oil traders sought to pay – throug...
Dots: Stabs In the Dark Without Any Substance September 22, 2023
Revenge of the dots. Sort of. The Federal Reserve hit the pause button for the second time this year this week, yet all anyone wanted to talk about was next year. Maybe there will be another rate hike from policymakers in 2023, maybe not. What comes ...
The Problem Isn't the Beige Book, It's Those Compiling It September 08, 2023
Back in 1983, Congressman Walter E. Fauntroy wasn’t too happy with the state of the economy. Who could have blamed him? In the final stage of seventeen terrible years of inflation, the US economy fell into not one but two deep recessions. The only si...
'Soft Landings' Are Another Made Up Economic Notion September 01, 2023
Richard Nixon really did not like even the idea of recession. In one sense, you can’t fault the guy since he was constantly blamed for them. This was a relatively new idea, too, that somehow Presidents are responsible for economic circumstances acros...
The Real Challenge Is Broad Understanding of the STL Fed Model August 11, 2023
He was once called the Harry Truman of the Federal Reserve. It was, by all accounts, a well-deserved reputation. During his tenure atop the St. Louis branch during some of the most tumultuous years, Darryl Francis would attain the status of a true ma...
The Bigger Problem Re Fitch Is Economics Being Swapped for economics August 04, 2023
There was a time when it was feared by everyone. The most powerful people in the world were forced to concede to its every whim, the tiniest of moves. Any hint of dismay would set off an immediate chain reaction through the loftiest corridors of gove...
China's Economic Struggles Are Representative of Global Struggles July 31, 2023
Communist regimes will always feature a fair amount of palace intrigue, a feature not a bug. To be fair, democratic societies aren’t free from the same, it is just done somewhat differently (in case you hadn’t noticed). Top-level shuffles aren’t alwa...
If Powell Wants Higher Rates, He Should Ask Why He's Not Getting Them July 21, 2023
On November 22, 1798, the US Navy suffered its first true defeat when the USS Retaliation yielded its colors without firing a single cannon. What made the event truly noteworthy was to whom its commander, William Bainbridge, was surrendering. Having ...
Even If Jerome Powell Is Successful, We Still Lose July 07, 2023
In some ways it has been like two heavyweight sluggers battling it out over the course of an extended bout, exchanging one haymaker after another. With each monstrous blow, the receiver is staggered temporarily only to reform and then unleash one of ...
What's Monetary About Interest Rates? June 23, 2023
In October 2018, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard claimed his organization had killed the work of ancient economist AW Phillips. It was the latter who has had his name, voluntary or not, attached to the eponymous curve at the center of this and ...
Policymakers Will Need a Miracle, Not a Pause June 16, 2023
There is a growing puzzle among central bankers, one that is both familiar and unique at the same time. When surveying the major employment figures, there doesn’t seem to be anything like recession in them, though that’s what we always see right befo...
Recession In China First, Followed by the World June 09, 2023
It wasn’t just a complete narrative fail, the fiasco uncovers much deeper and more intractable problems resurfacing at a most inopportune time. There are lessons to be heeded across the world, but they won’t be even as we get full confirmation the ho...
The Eurodollar Standard Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon June 02, 2023
This may be the best, most perfect example of why the eurodollar standard isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Since hardly anyone knows the world runs on that rather than the dollar, the two are constantly conflated for what is only nomenclature. As s...
There's a Real Ceiling on Money and Finance Unrelated to Government May 26, 2023
Before March 10, 2023, these kinds of moves had been exceptionally rare. In eurodollar futures and now SOFR futures (term), daily swings of greater than 20 bps were reserved for the most momentous occasions. Contract prices skyrocketed, for example, ...
Markets Continuously Project Lower Rates...Much Lower May 19, 2023
Several serious questions remain yet to be answered in the aftermath of recent bank failures. While politicians wrestle over who might be to blame, they’ll never come up with a useful answer anyway and far more important is what this will all do to a...
The Deflation Is Here, and It Wasn't the Rate Hikes May 05, 2023
Just a few months ago, Mohamed El-Erian was decrying a “paradox of financial conditions” as he called them. Writing in the Financial Times, El-Erian was speaking for quite a lot of establishment types, Economists mostly, who were perplexed by the mis...
Safety and Liquidity Will Soon Be Prized Even More April 28, 2023
It has not been a great week for central bankers, which is already saying something. By standards of recent developments, so long as a seven-day period goes by without major banking news, for them it would be considered a good one. Adding to the now-...
The Fed Goes Back to Fighting Non-Existent Inflation April 21, 2023
In the months before the debt ceiling was reached and possibly breached in 2011, global markets just could not get enough of Treasury’s bills. Not the ones the Department might use to make payments, of course, rather the debt instruments which rest u...
March FOMC Minutes Reinforce How Bad They Are at Money April 14, 2023
The other side of the supply shock was always going to be rough. Our only question was just how bad it might get. On that there were two variables, neither of those inflation. From the monetary side, we’d know from the beginning what ailed the global...
The Question No One Will Ask Jerome Powell: "What Would You Say You Do Here?" March 31, 2023
It’s such an amazing scene from a true cult classic that it hasn’t just become an internet meme, the very image of the Bobs grilling sweaty, fear-ridden Tom Smykowski trying desperately to justify his employment at Initech has become its own hierogly...