realclearmarkets.com /stream/
Jeffrey Snider | RCP Story Stream
Dynamic Web Parser
Back to top.
Recently Seen Items
Compact view
Reading view
Policymakers Will Need a Miracle, Not a Pause June 16, 2023
There is a growing puzzle among central bankers, one that is both familiar and unique at the same time. When surveying the major employment figures, there doesn’t seem to be anything like recession in them, though that’s what we always see right befo...
Recession In China First, Followed by the World June 09, 2023
It wasn’t just a complete narrative fail, the fiasco uncovers much deeper and more intractable problems resurfacing at a most inopportune time. There are lessons to be heeded across the world, but they won’t be even as we get full confirmation the ho...
The Eurodollar Standard Isn't Going Anywhere Anytime Soon June 02, 2023
This may be the best, most perfect example of why the eurodollar standard isn’t going anywhere anytime soon. Since hardly anyone knows the world runs on that rather than the dollar, the two are constantly conflated for what is only nomenclature. As s...
There's a Real Ceiling on Money and Finance Unrelated to Government May 26, 2023
Before March 10, 2023, these kinds of moves had been exceptionally rare. In eurodollar futures and now SOFR futures (term), daily swings of greater than 20 bps were reserved for the most momentous occasions. Contract prices skyrocketed, for example, ...
Markets Continuously Project Lower Rates...Much Lower May 19, 2023
Several serious questions remain yet to be answered in the aftermath of recent bank failures. While politicians wrestle over who might be to blame, they’ll never come up with a useful answer anyway and far more important is what this will all do to a...
The Deflation Is Here, and It Wasn't the Rate Hikes May 05, 2023
Just a few months ago, Mohamed El-Erian was decrying a “paradox of financial conditions” as he called them. Writing in the Financial Times, El-Erian was speaking for quite a lot of establishment types, Economists mostly, who were perplexed by the mis...
Safety and Liquidity Will Soon Be Prized Even More April 28, 2023
It has not been a great week for central bankers, which is already saying something. By standards of recent developments, so long as a seven-day period goes by without major banking news, for them it would be considered a good one. Adding to the now-...
The Fed Goes Back to Fighting Non-Existent Inflation April 21, 2023
In the months before the debt ceiling was reached and possibly breached in 2011, global markets just could not get enough of Treasury’s bills. Not the ones the Department might use to make payments, of course, rather the debt instruments which rest u...
March FOMC Minutes Reinforce How Bad They Are at Money April 14, 2023
The other side of the supply shock was always going to be rough. Our only question was just how bad it might get. On that there were two variables, neither of those inflation. From the monetary side, we’d know from the beginning what ailed the global...
The Question No One Will Ask Jerome Powell: "What Would You Say You Do Here?" March 31, 2023
It’s such an amazing scene from a true cult classic that it hasn’t just become an internet meme, the very image of the Bobs grilling sweaty, fear-ridden Tom Smykowski trying desperately to justify his employment at Initech has become its own hierogly...
Markets Have Been Warning Us About SVB for Months March 17, 2023
Can’t say we weren’t warned. Money and bond curves have been screaming for months trouble was lurking. A decent bout of it had erupted last fall, though hardly anyone saw it for what it was. Something about the UK, a bit of dollar activity in Switzer...
Prices Point In Unison To a Dark Global Experience March 10, 2023
Have you ever noticed that whenever the US dollar’s exchange value goes up, nothing good comes from it? The simplest, most obvious correlation to make yet it has taken a decade and half for some Economists to start putting two and two together. For ...
The Irrationality That Forms the Beliefs of Janet Yellen March 03, 2023
I’m inclined to cut Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen a tiny little slack here, pun intended. Rather miffed by all this talk of recession, appearing on ABC’s Good Morning America the Monday following the release of the gigantic January jobs report, Yel...
The Very Serious Possibility Recession Has Already Happened February 24, 2023
It was a sudden and epic flood of oil the likes of which the country hadn’t seen before. According to the government’s numbers, the Energy Information Administration, over a seven-week period domestic stocks of crude gushed by a then-record 34.4 mill...
Do QEs Fix Any Economy? The Question Is Rhetorical February 17, 2023
They come in with a tremendous bang, then go out with barely a whimper, and leave us in the very same jam that kicked off the cycle. Having since completely squandered rather than simply losing an entire decade, we must first remember Haruhiko Kuroda...
In This 'Silent Depression,' Let's Destroy the Dollar All Over Again February 10, 2023
If you’ve been on the website nerdwallet.com, there truly is a lot of good and interesting stuff there. From helping you compare credit card offers to researching banks and their lending options, it even has useful information to explore insurance co...
Central Bankers Fail Upward, But We Suffer Their Failings February 03, 2023
Here it begins, an unofficial start to what will shortly be the mass official exodus from inflation-fighting first transiting through bewilderment before eventually settling in their usual climate of panic. It is as regular as any natural cycle, such...
Dollar Providers Biding Time, Betting On Collapse January 27, 2023
Among the earliest participants in the eurodollar system were Canadians. Though these dollars were floating around Europe, primarily, Canadian banks stood ready to borrow in bulk as needed. Not for their own purposes, the trade contributions therefor...
Much Like Twenty Novembers Ago, We're At the Edge of a Cliff January 20, 2023
When staring directly at the edge of a cliff, you quite naturally begin to explore all the ways in which you might avoid going over it. The closer you get, obviously the more urgent the inquiry. And that’s exactly where we find our collected selves y...
No Need To Wait For a Crisis To Confirm What We Already Know January 13, 2023
It seems like an unnecessarily inefficient method, maybe even a total waste (pun intended) of time trying to discern what an animal eats solely by observing what comes out its back end. You might eventually witness something useful at some point, tho...
We've Been On a Digital Money Standard For at Least Half a Century January 06, 2023
Just as the Federal Reserve is not a central bank, VISA is not actually a credit card company. What is it about money and payments which leads to so many of these things being labeled as what they aren’t? The answer, quite simply, is in the human ing...
Recessions Hidden Behind Obvious Biases, Outdated Dogma December 16, 2022
Recessions are never unexpected, merely hidden behind obvious biases or buried under layers of outdated dogma. Most of the time, any economy is almost certainly expanding, which distorts our sense of probabilities. Since outright contractions seem ra...
New Urgency In the Marketplace Lacks Meaning to Monetary Officials December 09, 2022
It’s been amazing to watch SOFR do in real-time what its detractors had warned about the entire time. The Federal Reserve through its various means pushed the private market to adopt this thing after having demonized LIBOR for going on a decade. Why?...
Recession Is the Most Obvious Answer To All the Inversion December 02, 2022
As I type, the eurodollar futures curve is exactly 200 bps inverted, solidly Holy Crap territory. US Treasuries aren’t far behind in terms of historical upset, while an unprecedented inversion in the market for Germany’s government debt gets more unp...
So Much Trouble For So Little Yield at the Fed November 18, 2022
Before even getting to the details, it begs the question, why go to all this trouble? So much effort for so little yield, figuratively and literally. For policymakers at the Fed, their job really should be simple, robotic, even. Supply enough money t...