Interview «The Period of Abundance Is Over» Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, worries that the Federal Reserve is overreacting in the fight against inflation. He expects a severe slowdown of the economy and says how investors can navigate today’s challenging market environment. A conversation with the Bond King. Christoph Gisiger 05.09.2022
What Goes Up: China’s Employment Crisis The implosion of the real estate sector has stalled the Chinese growth machine. As a consequence, unemployment is rising. Western consumer goods companies with a significant presence in the country will feel the knock-on effects. Anne Stevenson-Yang 05.09.2022
English Want to Earn Big? Go for Chinese Fintechs One cannot afford not to follow the Chinese fintech sector. This is where financial innovation is happening, and the country is now several years ahead of Europe. The potential is very high, but investing in it is quite a demanding process. Myret Zaki 08.09.2022
English The Swiss National Bank Must Raise Interest Rates By a Lot Inflation is much above the SNB’s objective of 0-2%. As the Swiss economy can easily withstand tighter monetary policy, the SNB should focus squarely on restoring price stability. An end-of-year level of 2%, or perhaps even more, is justifiable given the economic outlook. Stefan Gerlach 19.09.2022
China: Ideology Trumps the Economy China is facing enormous internal and external challenges - and is increasingly isolating itself. Foreign companies are looking for alternatives. For its own sake, Beijing should follow up on the successful reforms of the 1990s. Joerg Wuttke 21.09.2022
Interview «The Fed Will Overdo It» Chen Zhao, chief strategist at Canadian research boutique Alpine Macro, argues that inflation will soon fall rapidly. This will pave the way for a recovery in equity and bond markets – but the road will be very bumpy. Mark Dittli 23.09.2022
Interview «Tech is Becoming a Regulated Industry» Benedict Evans, independent technology analyst, talks about the most important questions for the industry and the fundamental challenges when it comes to regulation, data protection, privacy, and competition on the internet. Christoph Gisiger ✉ 28.09.2022
Interview «It’s Likely Going to Be a Fairly Hard Landing» The risk of a severe recession is rising, financial markets are going crazy. Stephen Kane and Bryan Whalen, Co-Chief Investment Officers at US bond giant TCW, share what risk indicators they’re monitoring in today’s unpredictable environment and how they’re positioning their portfolio for an economic downturn. Christoph Gisiger 30.09.2022
Interview Nestlé-CEO: «We Are Ready to Make Acquisitions in Any of Our Business Lines» Mark Schneider, CEO of the world's largest food and beverage company, talks about inflationary pressures, his growth strategy and explains why the long-term momentum in businesses such as coffee and pet care is unbroken. Mark Dittli 04.10.2022
English The Unfortunate Non-Use of the SNB Money The Swiss national bank made a huge mistake: it didn’t reduce its portfolio risk in time, but remained exposed to stocks until capital gains evaporated and profit distributions are now compromised. This hedge fund style of investing is not responsible. Myret Zaki 07.10.2022
Interview «We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale» Market strategist and historian Russell Napier warns of a 15- to 20-year phase of structurally elevated inflation and financial repression. He shares his views on how investors should prepare for this new world. Mark Dittli 14.10.2022
English It is time for Credit Suisse to go back to its Swiss roots Credit Suisse will announce a major restructuring at the end of the month. The attempt to compete with the global banking titans has failed. To be successful in the future, CS must become thoroughly Swiss again. Guy Spier 18.10.2022
Interview «The US and China Have Now Moved into a Full-Blown Economic War» Jonathan Goldberg, Partner at Snowcloud Capital and Founder of D2D Advisory, talks about the recent escalation in the tech standoff between the US and China, explains what it means for the Chinese semiconductor industry, what strategic role Taiwan plays, and what it all implies for the outlook on the semiconductor sector. Christoph Gisiger ✉ 19.10.2022
English The Dollar and the Euro: Let’s not Confuse Exchange Rates with Currency Status The rise and fall of G7 currencies on the foreign exchange market is often confused with their global influence. However, these currencies are mainly paying for inflation and central banks that were slower to hike rates than in emerging markets. Myret Zaki 20.10.2022
Meinung The China Dream: To Be Someplace Else China’s leader Xi Jinping has has successfully cemented his power at the Communist Party Congress. Economically, however, the country is in precarious shape. Growth is weakening significantly, which will have repercussions around the globe. Anne Stevenson-Yang 24.10.2022
Interview «China Used to be a One-Way Street of Happiness and Rising Prosperity, But That’s Over Now» Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, sums up the 20th Party Congress and shares his views on the future economic and foreign policy under Xi Jinping. Mark Dittli 25.10.2022
English «We Recommend that Investors Start to Re-Risk» Alpine Macro's Chief Asset Allocation Strategist Caroline Miller expects inflation and long-term interest rates to fall next year. In an interview with The Market she explains how investors should position themselves for this scenario. Sandro Rosa ✉ 01.11.2022
English Credit Suisse: What a 10% Stake by the Saudi National Bank Means Will the second largest Swiss bank be able to handle its new ambitious investor, a Saudi bank whose market cap is seven times as big? Credit Suisse had better pull off its turnaround – or it could get swallowed. Myret Zaki vor 4 Stunden
Meinung The SNB Must Align its Investments Strictly With Monetary Policy Instruments The Swiss National Bank’s disastrous result has little to do with its monetary policy but is a consequence of its investment strategy. It must create transparency in this regard and draw organizational consequences. Daniel Riediker 08.11.2022
Interview «The Fed Has Ways to Go With Hiking Rates» Once again, hope is rising that the Federal Reserve will take a milder stance on monetary policy. Jim Bianco doesn’t think so. The strategist and President of Bianco Research argues that the era of low inflation and low interest rates is over for good. In an in-depth interview, he explains how to navigate the new environment. Christoph Gisiger 18.11.2022
English The Cockroach Portfolio: Still Dumb, Still Robust, Still Superior Regardless how you cut it – by country or currency – the drawdowns seen in traditional 60/40 portfolios this year have been as savage as almost anything seen in the past five decades. Cockroach portfolios, however, have generally held their ground. Why is that? Dylan Grice vor 3 Stunden
English Is Switzerland Another Name for Old-Style Finance? Are we stuck in boomer-era banking? Switzerland isn’t spearheading innovation in mobile finance, in middle-class banking or in blockchain. Once leaders, we’ve turned into followers. This needs to be addressed in 2023. Myret Zaki vor 8 Minuten
The Swiss National Bank’s Options The SNB will continue to raise policy interest rates to combat inflation. However, it could make use of another monetary policy instrument: adjusting the size of its balance sheet. Stefan Gerlach, Yvan Lengwiler & Charles Wyplosz 14.12.2022
Transitioning from an «Era of Plenty» to an «Era of Shortages» A series of negative supply shocks could mean that inflation rates will settle at a higher plateau. Stronger inflationary tendencies in turn could lead to interest rates remaining «higher for longer» than markets currently seem to expect. William R. White vor 2 Stunden
Interview «This Is Not Looking Like a Replay of 1982» Fears of a recession are rising. Alan Blinder, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, compares the current environment to the big inflation surge in the early Eighties and the economic downturn at the time. He says what’s different today and what’s next for interest rates. Christoph Gisiger vor 58 Minuten