What Goes Up: China’s Employment Crisis The implosion of the real estate sector has stalled the Chinese growth machine. As a consequence, unemployment is rising. Western consumer goods companies with a significant presence in the country will feel the knock-on effects. Anne Stevenson-Yang 05.09.2022
Interview «The Period of Abundance Is Over» Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine, worries that the Federal Reserve is overreacting in the fight against inflation. He expects a severe slowdown of the economy and says how investors can navigate today’s challenging market environment. A conversation with the Bond King. Christoph Gisiger 05.09.2022
English Want to Earn Big? Go for Chinese Fintechs One cannot afford not to follow the Chinese fintech sector. This is where financial innovation is happening, and the country is now several years ahead of Europe. The potential is very high, but investing in it is quite a demanding process. Myret Zaki 08.09.2022
English The Swiss National Bank Must Raise Interest Rates By a Lot Inflation is much above the SNB’s objective of 0-2%. As the Swiss economy can easily withstand tighter monetary policy, the SNB should focus squarely on restoring price stability. An end-of-year level of 2%, or perhaps even more, is justifiable given the economic outlook. Stefan Gerlach 19.09.2022
China: Ideology Trumps the Economy China is facing enormous internal and external challenges - and is increasingly isolating itself. Foreign companies are looking for alternatives. For its own sake, Beijing should follow up on the successful reforms of the 1990s. Joerg Wuttke 21.09.2022
Interview «The Fed Will Overdo It» Chen Zhao, chief strategist at Canadian research boutique Alpine Macro, argues that inflation will soon fall rapidly. This will pave the way for a recovery in equity and bond markets – but the road will be very bumpy. Mark Dittli 23.09.2022
Interview «Tech is Becoming a Regulated Industry» Benedict Evans, independent technology analyst, talks about the most important questions for the industry and the fundamental challenges when it comes to regulation, data protection, privacy, and competition on the internet. Christoph Gisiger ✉ 28.09.2022
Interview «It’s Likely Going to Be a Fairly Hard Landing» The risk of a severe recession is rising, financial markets are going crazy. Stephen Kane and Bryan Whalen, Co-Chief Investment Officers at US bond giant TCW, share what risk indicators they’re monitoring in today’s unpredictable environment and how they’re positioning their portfolio for an economic downturn. Christoph Gisiger 30.09.2022
Interview Nestlé-CEO: «We Are Ready to Make Acquisitions in Any of Our Business Lines» Mark Schneider, CEO of the world's largest food and beverage company, talks about inflationary pressures, his growth strategy and explains why the long-term momentum in businesses such as coffee and pet care is unbroken. Mark Dittli 04.10.2022
English The Unfortunate Non-Use of the SNB Money The Swiss national bank made a huge mistake: it didn’t reduce its portfolio risk in time, but remained exposed to stocks until capital gains evaporated and profit distributions are now compromised. This hedge fund style of investing is not responsible. Myret Zaki 07.10.2022
Interview «We Will See the Return of Capital Investment on a Massive Scale» Market strategist and historian Russell Napier warns of a 15- to 20-year phase of structurally elevated inflation and financial repression. He shares his views on how investors should prepare for this new world. Mark Dittli 14.10.2022
English It is time for Credit Suisse to go back to its Swiss roots Credit Suisse will announce a major restructuring at the end of the month. The attempt to compete with the global banking titans has failed. To be successful in the future, CS must become thoroughly Swiss again. Guy Spier 18.10.2022
Interview «The US and China Have Now Moved into a Full-Blown Economic War» Jonathan Goldberg, Partner at Snowcloud Capital and Founder of D2D Advisory, talks about the recent escalation in the tech standoff between the US and China, explains what it means for the Chinese semiconductor industry, what strategic role Taiwan plays, and what it all implies for the outlook on the semiconductor sector. Christoph Gisiger ✉ 19.10.2022
English The Dollar and the Euro: Let’s not Confuse Exchange Rates with Currency Status The rise and fall of G7 currencies on the foreign exchange market is often confused with their global influence. However, these currencies are mainly paying for inflation and central banks that were slower to hike rates than in emerging markets. Myret Zaki 20.10.2022
Meinung The China Dream: To Be Someplace Else China’s leader Xi Jinping has has successfully cemented his power at the Communist Party Congress. Economically, however, the country is in precarious shape. Growth is weakening significantly, which will have repercussions around the globe. Anne Stevenson-Yang 24.10.2022
Interview «China Used to be a One-Way Street of Happiness and Rising Prosperity, But That’s Over Now» Joerg Wuttke, President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, sums up the 20th Party Congress and shares his views on the future economic and foreign policy under Xi Jinping. Mark Dittli 25.10.2022
English «We Recommend that Investors Start to Re-Risk» Alpine Macro's Chief Asset Allocation Strategist Caroline Miller expects inflation and long-term interest rates to fall next year. In an interview with The Market she explains how investors should position themselves for this scenario. Sandro Rosa ✉ 01.11.2022
English Credit Suisse: What a 10% Stake by the Saudi National Bank Means Will the second largest Swiss bank be able to handle its new ambitious investor, a Saudi bank whose market cap is seven times as big? Credit Suisse had better pull off its turnaround – or it could get swallowed. Myret Zaki vor 4 Stunden
Meinung The SNB Must Align its Investments Strictly With Monetary Policy Instruments The Swiss National Bank’s disastrous result has little to do with its monetary policy but is a consequence of its investment strategy. It must create transparency in this regard and draw organizational consequences. Daniel Riediker 08.11.2022
Interview «The Fed Has Ways to Go With Hiking Rates» Once again, hope is rising that the Federal Reserve will take a milder stance on monetary policy. Jim Bianco doesn’t think so. The strategist and President of Bianco Research argues that the era of low inflation and low interest rates is over for good. In an in-depth interview, he explains how to navigate the new environment. Christoph Gisiger 18.11.2022
English The Cockroach Portfolio: Still Dumb, Still Robust, Still Superior Regardless how you cut it – by country or currency – the drawdowns seen in traditional 60/40 portfolios this year have been as savage as almost anything seen in the past five decades. Cockroach portfolios, however, have generally held their ground. Why is that? Dylan Grice vor 3 Stunden
English Is Switzerland Another Name for Old-Style Finance? Are we stuck in boomer-era banking? Switzerland isn’t spearheading innovation in mobile finance, in middle-class banking or in blockchain. Once leaders, we’ve turned into followers. This needs to be addressed in 2023. Myret Zaki vor 8 Minuten
The Swiss National Bank’s Options The SNB will continue to raise policy interest rates to combat inflation. However, it could make use of another monetary policy instrument: adjusting the size of its balance sheet. Stefan Gerlach, Yvan Lengwiler & Charles Wyplosz 14.12.2022
Transitioning from an «Era of Plenty» to an «Era of Shortages» A series of negative supply shocks could mean that inflation rates will settle at a higher plateau. Stronger inflationary tendencies in turn could lead to interest rates remaining «higher for longer» than markets currently seem to expect. William R. White vor 2 Stunden
Interview «This Is Not Looking Like a Replay of 1982» Fears of a recession are rising. Alan Blinder, former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, compares the current environment to the big inflation surge in the early Eighties and the economic downturn at the time. He says what’s different today and what’s next for interest rates. Christoph Gisiger vor 58 Minuten
Interview «We Are Heading Into a Great Environment for Emerging Markets» Louis-Vincent Gave, co-founder and CEO of Gavekal Research, talks about the most important investment topics in the new year and reveals where he would invest now. Mark Dittli 23.12.2022
English The Collapse of FTX Made Us Relearn Basic Risk Lessons The spectacular demise of the crypto exchange has suddenly reminded us of major risk principles that were forgotten. The FTX failure is similar to the Madoff, WeWork or LTCM cases. Myret Zaki vor 56 Minuten
English «I think There Has Been Some Kind of Quiet Internal Revolt Against Xi Jinping’s Personal Rule» Beijing abruptly lifts the Zero-Covid policy and takes a more business-friendly course. What is behind these surprising moves? How do they impact the economic outlook for the Middle Kingdom? And what does it mean for investors? To find out, The Market spoke with China expert Anne Stevenson-Yang. Christoph Gisiger vor 3 Stunden
English Look Out Below Due to the liquidity glut from central banks, the stock market has rushed far ahead of economic growth. High inflation and rising interest rates are now bringing valuations back to a more sustainable basis - with ugly consequences for equity prices. Charles Biderman vor 2 Stunden
English BREIT: A Canary in the Coalmine? Higher interest rates are changing the environment for real estate investments. The recent turmoil surrounding Blackstone’s BREIT highlights the looming risks of private funds. Investment strategies must be adapted to new market conditions. Zoltan Szelyes 17.01.2023
Interview «Japan Is Perhaps the Most Important Risk in the World» Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation and why gold should be part of your portfolio. Christoph Gisiger vor 4 Stunden
Interview «Japan Is Perhaps the Most Important Risk in the World» Speculation is mounting that the Bank of Japan is losing control of the bond market. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», believes this could trigger a shock to the global financial system. He also explains why he expects further surges in inflation and why gold should be part of your portfolio. Christoph Gisiger vor 2 Stunden
Interview «The Best Time in Many Years to Buy Asian And Emerging Market Equities» Christopher Wood, Global Head of Equity Strategy for Jefferies in Hong Kong, sees a strong recovery in China and a looming recession in the US. He explains how investors should position themselves in this challenging environment. Mark Dittli 20.01.2023
Interview «Our Business is Much More Resistant to Economic Fluctuations» Holcim CEO Jan Jenisch explains why the cement business is less cyclical today, why the valuation of Holcim's shares remains depressed, and how long he intends to stay at the helm of the company. Giorgio Müller ✉ vor 3 Stunden
English Why Banks Merge Less, And Partner More Regulatory pressure is driving the search for alliances that complement product offerings at little risk and reasonable cost. This pragmatic approach is helping Swiss finance to achieve a soft turnaround in the era post Swiss banking secrecy. Myret Zaki vor 50 Minuten
Interview «The Most Important Question Is Whether We’re Going to Have Stagflation» The benign environment of low interest rates is a bygone era, thinks Howard Marks, co-chairman of Oaktree Capital. In an in-depth interview, the legendary investor explains why he expects a fundamental shift in the market environment, what that means for your portfolio, and what he considers the worst sin in investing. Christoph Gisiger ✉ 30.01.2023
Interview «Are You Bullish on China? Then Buy Brazil» Rajiv Jain, Founder and CIO of Florida-based investment boutique GQG Partners, shares his best investment ideas and says why the derating in the tech sector is not over yet. Mark Dittli 10.02.2023
President Lagarde and the ECB Since taking the helm of the European Central Bank, Madame Lagarde had to deal with a set of rolling crises. Her communication skills with financial markets still need to improve. Stefan Gerlach 14.02.2023
English «I’m not Sure Speculation Is Gone» Jim Chanos, president and founder of Chanos & Company, believes the level of silliness and speculation seen in 2020 and 2021 marked an important moment for valuations. He talks about the biggest fraud which is hiding in plain sight and why he believes Tesla has a long way to go down. Gregor Mast vor 4 Stunden
Meinung The SNB’s exposure to US stocks imports volatility The Swiss central bank has been exposed to the GAFAM (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Microsoft) for as much as 40 bn. $ at last year’s peak. Its heavy losses owe much to the volatility of the US tech sector. The SEC filings of the SNB are full of valuable information and need to be monitored. Myret Zaki vor 2 Stunden
Interview «A Number of Inflationary Forces Will Remain in Place For a Long Time» William White, former chief economist of the Bank for International Settlements, sees several reasons why structural inflationary pressures remain high – and why central banks face an almost insurmountable task. Mark Dittli vor 2 Stunden
Interview «The Fed Will Continue to Hike Even if Things Break» Macroeconomic developments are dominating the financial markets. In an in-depth interview, economist Megan Greene talks about the outlook for the US and Europe, what’s next for inflation and interest rates, and which underestimated risks should be on investors’ radar. Christoph Gisiger 03.03.2023
Meinung European ESG Regulation Overshoots the Mark Regulation does not equal progress. The miss-effect of the European Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation shows what should determine the future of regulation in Switzerland: materiality. Philipp Aeby 09.03.2023
English «European Equities Still Have Plenty of Upside Potential» Peter Perkins, market strategist at research boutique MRB Partners, says in an interview how he sees the outlook for the global economy and why he likes eurozone and emerging market equities. Sandro Rosa vor 3 Stunden
Interview «The Window Is Closing Fast on the Fed» The crisis in the banking sector is rattling the world. Marko Papic, Partner and Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, talks about the consequences for the markets, the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve and attractive investments in uncertain times. Christoph Gisiger 17.03.2023
«The Only Winner in This Deal is UBS» Jim Bianco, founder and President of Bianco Research, shares his take on the Credit Suisse takeover, the banking crisis in the US and the implications for the financial markets. Christoph Gisiger 20.03.2023
«The Only Winner in This Deal is UBS» Jim Bianco, founder and President of Bianco Research, shares his take on the Credit Suisse takeover, the banking crisis in the US and the implications for the financial markets. Christoph Gisiger vor 3 Stunden
English «Commodities are the only attractively valued asset class» Legendary investor and author Jim Rogers says why he expects massively higher interest rates in the medium term and explains which assets are still cheap and why he is worried about the Swiss franc. Sandro Rosa vor 16 Minuten
Will Silicon Valley Bank Change Monetary Policy? The rapid rate hikes of the past twelve months expose the fragilities in the financial system. Silicon Valley Bank is only the first victim; others will follow. Difficult times lie ahead for monetary policy. Stefan Gerlach vor 4 Minuten
English The Cost of Ignoring the Shadow Banking System Credit Suisse had high capital ratios, but it didn’t help because it was exposed to the shadow banking system. Hence its failure and that of regulators, who chose to ignore the elephant in the room. Myret Zaki 23.03.2023
