You haven't been keeping your finger on the pulse here the last few days :)
https://www.fool.com.au/2022/08/30/bannerman-share-price-explodes-24-as-asx-uranium-explorers-soar/

Coverage

https://www.fool.co.uk/2022/09/01/2-hot-growth-stocks-that-could-fly-this-month/

Uranium price still edging up a little in a soft market generally.

I think that they may hold up on KAZ purchase because it has bad optics. They are better off just holding what they have than buying risky KAZ Uranium.

Obviously someone with a lot of money mopped up the discount to NAV recently, and I am wondering if this is asset manager action or perhaps (as a long shot) related to the Sprott Uranium trust listing..... might Sprott buy YCA to effect their UK listing?

Looks like YCA might need to raise cash soon then as they won’t sell any Uranium I’m sure?

> Looks like YCA might need to raise cash soon then
Only if they choose to buy more U3O8, which I'm sure they will only do when the shares are trading at a premium.

> as they won’t sell any Uranium I’m sure?
I am sure too. I've had some comms with Mr Liebenberg - left me with the very strong impression that he's keen, based on shareholder feedback, to not sell down the U3O8 assets. He didn't do it when at a 20% discount, so I would be shocked if it was done when trading nearer NAV.

Managed a few here on the open following other uranium plays flying over the last week.

I'm up to my limit on purchases, but looking good

I managed far better entries on US/Canadian stocks than I did here - same ole, same ole, dreadful exchanges here in the UK, more and more of my money going to foreign exchanges these past couple of years.

Its up 9% - anybody got any idea why ? Not that I am unhappy of course! ;-)

Ah, no, I missed that, Thankyou!

resident idiot posting meaningless information

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/x55ia8/uranium_stocks_us_government_request_billions_of/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

You can watch him on Youtube - very informative.

Interesting
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCKMeK-HGHfUFFArZ91rzv5A

Fire side pre WNA Symposium video chat hosted by Nick Lawson of Ocean Wall talking to CEO Andre Liebenberg & Justin Garrow.

https://oceanwall.com/uranium-fireside-chat/

What's this "Authority to allot shares" in the AGM RNS - 'only' got 86.21% support, low compared to the positive votes for all the other resolutions ?

Also, Bloomberg story "Uranium Risks Becoming the Next Critical Minerals Crisis" https://archive.ph/SfGMm
It talks of the squeeze that we uranium-longs hope for, but gives an example of a mine that is ready to supply Uranium at short notice.
I'm starting to doubt the 'squeeze' will be as significant as I thought when I was first buying YCA a year ago. This, plus the reduced discount, motivated me to have sold down most of my holding over the last couple of weeks.
GLA.

Thanks for sharing Snooz. Volatility here has surprised me and I expect it to continue and magnify both up and down movements so providing potentially good trading opportunities.
Your NAV tracker is a welcome legacy from your time invested here!

>Your NAV tracker is a welcome legacy from your time invested here!
I'm still invested, only it about a 15% of what I was at my peak holding.

>magnify both up and down movements so providing potentially good trading opportunities.
I'll be buying on any of those down movements or if/when the discount is above 10%.

I read up on the "Authority to allot shares" thing - it's re. permission to issue shares for the Kazataprom option + a bit more to buy more U3O8 in the spot market. And, separately you may take my word for it that management clarified they "do not intend to issue shares at a discount to NAV".

Excellent info thanks. I've also found Andre responsive.
I'm using a trading pot and long term pot here but currently 85% remains long with only 15% trading.
I was using 15% discount to NAV as my buy trigger but that strategy needs reassessing

I note that yellowcake is the 7th largest holding in sprotts URNM etf

https://sprottetfs.com/urnm-sprott-uranium-miners-etf/#holdings

Yellow Cake PLC $40,808,754.39 JE00BF50RG45 YCA LN BF50RG4 9,020,363 4.41%

https://www.neimagazine.com/news/industry_news_archive.html

Published continuously since 1956 with more than 60 years of being an independent nuclear technical journal, Nuclear Engineering International covers all aspects of civil nuclear power generation and its related supply chains globally.

Topics covered range from front-end fuel cycle to power plant operations to decontamination & decommissioning. In addition to technical subjects, we also cover market developments, economics, government policy and management issues.

https://www.bne.eu/kazakhstan-offers-europe-chance-to-kick-its-russian-uranium-habit-257334/?source=czech-republic

The uranium producer stated in its mid-year financial statement that it has the confidence to target 2024 uranium output that will be 2000–3000 tU (tonnes of elemental uranium) over the anticipated 2023 level, thanks to mid-term and long-term contracts.

A detailed analysis of YCA.L and Uranium spot price trends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNC0IRA5e-A

https://oceanwall.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Transport-Report.pdf

At the current rate of Chinese procurement of uranium, coupled with their plans to build eight new reactors a year, we could see China sequester 4-5 years of global consumption. With global annual demand for uranium at c.200m lbs/year, that’s potentially 1bn lbs of uranium sequestered from the market.

In addition to the current uranium procurement strategy being executed in China, the government also announced the creation of a strategic uranium stockpile on the Chinese Kazakh border. The Alashankou Uranium Bonded Warehouse is expected to hold 23,000 tons of uranium, equivalent to the annual production of Kazakhstan. While it is estimated that ‘only’ 3,000-4,000 tons are currently being stored at this location, in 2023, this will increase four-fold.

https://media-exp1.licdn.com/dms/document/D4E1FAQFg3RlvLOgOLQ/feedshare-document-pdf-analyzed/0/1665572691377?e=1666828800&v=beta&t=wpVwi-nWmKtemTeOM4vu3jCUH9q-L9GtpEGA035ff44

One view for short-term price upside is due to anticipation that utilities will become more active in the market towards the end of the year. Our conversations with those in the industry have concluded that Q4’22 should be an aggressive quarter of term contracting from utilities, driving total contracted term volumes to and possibly beyond 100m lbs for the year.

Others anticipate that the current broader market environment will soften and see SPUT
return to the market for a strong end to the year. With broader market headwinds calming, SPUT can rejuvenate what has been a comparatively quiet year in uranium purchasing. Both of these outcomes would add further pressure to prices.

A detailed analysis of YCA.L and Uranium spot price trends: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNC0IRA5e-A

Phew - I'm holding no position in this for the first time in over a year (sold at 431.114). I'll be back if I can't find something else to buy before I see this at a discount over 10% again. I doubt it'll be more than a week away.

I port that then realise my personal diary isn't necessarily interesting to anyone. So, here's some uranium news instead:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63294697

Someone once told me the uranium used in reactors was specific to the reactor and that it takes a long time to 'tune' uranium for a specific reactor - I'm not so sure that's true if decisions like this can be made at such short notice.

"I port" should have read "I post". Anyways, the 10% discount is back and so am I.

I did a bit more reading regarding the German reactors.
https://www.ft.com/content/3f48c18f-0348-46b0-a082-3bf07e14e589

My expectation is that the three previously due for closure this year are kept online so long as the uranium in them doesn't need replacing, even if that is beyond mid-April 2023 which is the current plan.

Phew - I'm holding no position in this for the first time in over a year (sold at 431.114). I'll be back if I can't find something else to buy before I see this at a discount over 10% again. I doubt it'll be more than a week away.

I managed far better entries on US/Canadian stocks than I did here - same ole, same ole, dreadful exchanges here in the UK, more and more of my money going to foreign exchanges these past couple of years.

You can watch him on Youtube - very informative.

Great research Sea thanks for the heads up.

The market is pretty skittish so for now we trade at a discount to NAV. Last time it was quoted at £4.71 though price is reducing a touch today. Market is scared and needs liquidity. LT this is a super strong hold.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/YCA/fall-in-uranium-prices-hits-yellow-cake-in-september-quarter-w2mmh5zmiel2vke.html

thanks dissipline

think we saw some end of month rebalancing today - hence the drop

Ah, no, I missed that, Thankyou!

Call me a pedant but... In today's RNS it says shares excluding those in treasury is 183,104,399 . Previous publications say 183,104,339 . Not sure if it's a typo - seems weird for it to change by a small amount - and it looks like a typo, repeating the wrong digit.

Looks like 183,104,399 is the correct figure and the other figures in documents such as
https://www.yellowcakeplc.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Yellow-Cake-Investor-Presentation_September.pdf are just wrong.
I know it's a small mistake but I like the old saying: "Look after the pennies and the pounds will look after themselves".

Great research Sea thanks for the heads up.

The market is pretty skittish so for now we trade at a discount to NAV. Last time it was quoted at £4.71 though price is reducing a touch today. Market is scared and needs liquidity. LT this is a super strong hold.

thanks dissipline

think we saw some end of month rebalancing today - hence the drop

Call me a pedant but... In today's RNS it says shares excluding those in treasury is 183,104,399 . Previous publications say 183,104,339 . Not sure if it's a typo - seems weird for it to change by a small amount - and it looks like a typo, repeating the wrong digit.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/YCA/fall-in-uranium-prices-hits-yellow-cake-in-september-quarter-w2mmh5zmiel2vke.html

Hi All
Forgive me if this is a daft question but.... given that the SP is now within 1% (ish) of the Nett Asset Value is this generally a good time to get out and wait for it to retreat to 10% discount?
Thanks in advance MD66

if uranium spikes higher nav will too

This is a good question. Myself ive always traded YCA based on the Uranium price trend not the trend of YCA itself. Theoretically we should ALWAYS be at NAV. I think that the fact we are at NAV reflects that Uranium is at last in fashion with all the fund managers etc.... My hunch is that once we are at a significant premium to NAV this will be the sign that all the retail are in - look out for excess Uranium memes & youtube shilling - that will be a better time to sell based on NAV but I think we are still a long way off that.

I routinely traded the range over the recent times...that being, buying in at 15% to 20% discount to NAV and then selling as it approached below 5% NAV.

Lately we have stayed below 5% Nav with the range being 3% down to less than 1%- with uranium sitting at 50 and the contracting cycle getting every closer, it is possible that bar an outright market wide sell off, we won't see the 20% discount for some time.

Yellowcake is still an equity and at the mercy of the market and we are seeing the cable rate affect the NAV also, so that is also worth keeping an eye on.

Macro backdrop for yellowcake is supportive of the price and even with currency/spot movements, we are fairly well supported, at the current price - a market wide sell off should still see solid support maintained at £4 a share, if it gets that low -

as rogue points out uranium trend is key - as it is decoupled from the rest of the market and won't budge much, if at all, even if the rest of the market goes to hell in a hand cart.

Whenever I have taken profits here, I am usually far more worried about not having a position, than having one and seeing it drop, due to the uranium market fundamentals

I have re-entered again today, just before the close at 431, after trading the run from 431 to 442 yesterday.

>Myself ive always traded YCA based on the Uranium price trend not the trend of YCA itself.
Me too insomuch as I think the trend is upward, so am only ever long, rarely out and never short YCA.
I've been varying the amounts held very frequently - a year ago I was using a rough sliding scale between max holding @-10% to no holding at +10% - I've kinda retuned that though to trading over a -20% to 0 range.

There are two beliefs I have now that I didn't a year ago:
1) +ve NAV is capped. The management are keen to issue more shares when at a +ve NAV - and they are willing to issue them in a way that snaps the price back to NAV. I wish they'd offer the shares to existing shareholders, issue tradable purchase rights rather than just make them available them available to some bankers but that did happen in Oct '21 and the share price went from about +10% NAV to zero premium. I used this as a buying opportunity and remember posting that I was learning for everyone else's misfortune - I don't want to hold this share when it's at any premium.
2) -ve is uncapped. The management team are not willing to sell U3O8 assets to raise capital for a share buyback, or to issue dividends, to support the price. In the long run they have to get a plan together to sell the U3O8, even if it's never executed, otherwise it's a perpetual scheme where investors can only take out what other investors are putting in. And, as it can't really be perpetual as they have running costs this means they will eventually have to issue shares below NAV or sell assets in situation where buyers have the upper hand.

This is a good question. Myself ive always traded YCA based on the Uranium price trend not the trend of YCA itself. Theoretically we should ALWAYS be at NAV. I think that the fact we are at NAV reflects that Uranium is at last in fashion with all the fund managers etc.... My hunch is that once we are at a significant premium to NAV this will be the sign that all the retail are in - look out for excess Uranium memes & youtube shilling - that will be a better time to sell based on NAV but I think we are still a long way off that.

I routinely traded the range over the recent times...that being, buying in at 15% to 20% discount to NAV and then selling as it approached below 5% NAV.

Lately we have stayed below 5% Nav with the range being 3% down to less than 1%- with uranium sitting at 50 and the contracting cycle getting every closer, it is possible that bar an outright market wide sell off, we won't see the 20% discount for some time.

Yellowcake is still an equity and at the mercy of the market and we are seeing the cable rate affect the NAV also, so that is also worth keeping an eye on.

Macro backdrop for yellowcake is supportive of the price and even with currency/spot movements, we are fairly well supported, at the current price - a market wide sell off should still see solid support maintained at £4 a share, if it gets that low -

as rogue points out uranium trend is key - as it is decoupled from the rest of the market and won't budge much, if at all, even if the rest of the market goes to hell in a hand cart.

Whenever I have taken profits here, I am usually far more worried about not having a position, than having one and seeing it drop, due to the uranium market fundamentals

I have re-entered again today, just before the close at 431, after trading the run from 431 to 442 yesterday.

Virtual investor conference with andre - streamed 8th Nov 22

hTtps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8861WIlEukQ