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The Powell Party Is Just Getting Started, and It's the Opposite of Festive February 08, 2019
Why wasn’t it Christmas? Everything we had ever been taught pointed to the celebration. One prominent stock market analyst said, “we’re having champagne and cookies.” That was the way share prices reacted globally. The Dow jumped 330 points, while th...
The Bond Market Stopped Being Polite Last December February 15, 2019
It almost rises to the level of a paradox. Whenever things go wrong, you can be sure officials will be quick to blame speculators. At the end of last October, for example, the People’s Bank of China began a series of stepped up bill auctions. The cou...
It Can't Die of Old Age If It's Not a 'Recovery' To Begin With February 22, 2019
On her last day as Chairman, Janet Yellen allowed CBS News reporter Rita Braver to follow her around saying goodbye and reminiscing. It was February 1, 2018, by every mainstream account a good time to be sailing off into the sunset. Federal Reserve o...
It Can't Die of Old Age If It's Not 'Recovery' to Begin With February 22, 2019
On her last day as Chairman, Janet Yellen allowed CBS News reporter Rita Braver to follow her around saying goodbye and reminiscing. It was February 1, 2018, by every mainstream account a good time to be sailing off into the sunset. Federal Reserve o...
Are the Great Depression and the Last 11 Years Comparable? March 01, 2019
Due to the federal government shutdown in December and January, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) wasn’t able to provide a preliminary estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2018. Trying to catch up, agency statisticians have had to scrambl...
The World Presumes Central Bankers Get It. They Don't. March 08, 2019
It most definitely is a liquidity trap, just not the one they conceive. What lost Japan three decades of economic growth was a gargantuan mistake about its own monetary system, and where its central bank fits into it. Western authorities in our curre...
China Is At the Forefront of a Global Economic Reverse March 15, 2019
It was a crossroads for modern China. As its de facto leader since 1978, Deng Xiaoping had introduced serious reforms. These had begun to sputter toward the later 1980’s. Then came Tiananmen Square and a growing crackdown. Authoritarian politics was ...
The Fed Threw In the Towel On the 'Boom,' Doesn't Know Why March 22, 2019
And so, just like that, the policy cycle is now over. In terms of time, it took far longer than the last one. Alan Greenspan’s Fed, finished up under Ben Bernanke, packed 17 successive 25 bps “rate hikes” into 501 trading sessions. Those begun under ...
Falling Yields Signal They Were All Wrong About the Economy March 29, 2019
With the Federal Reserve already partway there, markets are now expecting Jay Powell to go much further. The FOMC at its last meeting surrendered on further rate hikes. This Fed “pause” was obviously intended to reassure these same markets. Instead, ...
Growing Agreement That the 2019 Boom Has Been Canceled April 05, 2019
Though it wasn’t until the 20th century that man figured out how to fly, the physics, as it turns out, are pretty simple. For a given vessel’s weight it must produce enough lift. To achieve lift, the thing requires a combination of speed, shape, and ...
The Economy Is Weak Because the Economy Is Weak April 12, 2019
We are all taught from the very beginning, from Economics 101 and even before you ever get to college that the central bank is central. Every time there is a question about the economy or markets, up pops the talking head of Mario Draghi, Jay Powell,...
Another Bretton Woods to Solve a Global Problem April 26, 2019
In the Spring of 1944, the world's attention was rightly focused elsewhere. American and British troops were stuck at the Anzio beachhead in Italy, surrounded by Germans. The Red Army was flooding into the Ukraine. While the US Navy and Marines were ...
Another Bretton Woods Gathering to Solve a Global Problem April 26, 2019
In the Spring of 1944, the world’s attention was rightly focused elsewhere. American and British troops were stuck at the Anzio beachhead in Italy, surrounded by Germans. The Red Army was flooding into the Ukraine. While the US Navy and Marines were ...
The Economy Isn't Booming Just Because Unemployment Is Low May 03, 2019
Ever since the Soviets launched a beach ball sized chunk of metal into orbit, the shock has remained part of the American fabric. On October 4, 1957, the Russians placed Sputnik1 on top of a modified ballistic missile design, the R-7 Semyorka, and se...
The Economy Isn't Booming Just Because Unemployment's Low May 03, 2019
Ever since the Soviets launched a beach ball sized chunk of metal into orbit, the shock has remained part of the American fabric. On October 4, 1957, the Russians placed Sputnik1 on top of a modified ballistic missile design, the R-7 Semyorka, and se...
2019 Rate Cuts Are Being Priced As Far, Far More Likely May 10, 2019
When the Chinese currency (CNY) suddenly plunged in the middle of August 2015, a stunned world conditioned by decades of econometrics condemned China for its brazenness. Currency exchange rates are set, we are told, by learned experts conducting pred...
2019 Rate Cuts Being Priced As Far, Far More Likely May 10, 2019
When the Chinese currency (CNY) suddenly plunged in the middle of August 2015, a stunned world conditioned by decades of econometrics condemned China for its brazenness. Currency exchange rates are set, we are told, by learned experts conducting pred...
Modern Econ. Makes Globalization Unnecessarily Complicated May 17, 2019
Globalization, as it is known today, has always been a contentious issue. It may not seem that way for people of my age who grew up under unfettered assumptions. The expansion of global trade as the key vehicle in globalization was accepted as an unq...
Modern Economics Makes Globalization Unnecessarily Complicated May 17, 2019
Globalization, as it is known today, has always been a contentious issue. It may not seem that way for people of my age who grew up under unfettered assumptions. The expansion of global trade as the key vehicle in globalization was accepted as an unq...
The Rate Cuts Are Coming,but Economic Growth Isn't May 24, 2019
It's weird that the White House projections for the federal budget are much rosier than those from the other parts of the government. The Executive branch, after all, isn't responsible for spending and taxes. It's Congress and specifically the House ...
The Rate Cuts Are Coming, but Economic Growth Isn't May 24, 2019
It’s weird that the White House projections for the federal budget are much rosier than those from the other parts of the government. The Executive branch, after all, isn’t responsible for spending and taxes. It’s Congress and specifically the House ...