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2 Scientific Breakthroughs Should Further Tilt the Scale Towards Sodium-Ion Commercialization.

The Korean Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST) has detailed a technology advance in Sodium Ion battery technology that, if replicated, could overcome one of the major hurdles limiting mass adoption of electric vehicles, the slow charge rates for

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Another Perspective to Frame the Role of the “Big 3” Pharmacy Benefit Managers.

Contained within UnitedHealth Group (UNH-NYSE, $504.68), The Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $352.38) and CVS Health Corporation (CVS-NYSE, $69.65) are three separate divisions poorly understood by retail, and to some extent, glossed over by institutional investors in terms of business upside. These

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Federal Reserve Governor Mentions the Unthinkable: That Fed Funding Rates may not Have Peaked.

What would the investment world do with their modeling, were the current interest rate environment be designated, not as a “peak”, but rather, a “floor”? For the second time this week, both a present Federal reserve governor and a former

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Gnostic Portfolio Return for the Quarter Ended 03/28/2024.

For Q1, 2024 the 3 US representative indexes posted the following returns. DJIA: 5.6%. S&P 500: 10.2% NASDAQ Composite: 9.1% For Q1, 2024, the Gnostic Global Portfolio started the year off with a valuation of $845.43 per share and closed

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Observations; Learned & Earned, on the 100-BAGGER Portfolio Return.

In a smallish western film titled Appaloosa, a US Marshall and his deputy are tasked with arresting and/or killing several criminals trying to facilitate a prison break. Preceding the battle is a typical build-up of tension, with the heroes and

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Eli Lilly and the “Oprahmercial”.

Oprahmercial: an infomercial designed specifically for the financial betterment of Oprah Winfrey. Monday’s one hour prime time special on GLP-1 weight loss drugs was a not-so-subtle attempt to put the thumb on the scale of the weight loss duopoly in

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Oprah Winfrey’s Decision to Abandon Traditional Weight Loss Treatments in Favor of Pharmaceutically Driven Options Will Likely Accelerate Prescription Flows for Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly.

Oprah Winfrey’s public statements, and decision to step away from the Weight Watcher’s brand, is as clear an indication of the shift away from lifestyle choices towards weight management, in favor of pharmaceutical options, as can be intimated. There really

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Grupo Chedraui (CHDRAUIB.MX, $7.84 USD) Raises Dividend, Forecasts Improved Operating Margins in 2024 and Provides Color on Supercito Format.

The Grupo Chedraui Q4 conference call offered insights that suggest a Chedraui has designs upon mimicking the highly successful ALDI format, in Mexico. The Supercito banner in Mexico operated by Grupo Chedraui represents a relatively novel venture. Small footprint local

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Geopolitical Risk Modeling on Russian Invasion of Ukraine may not pay Enough Heed to a Munitions Problem.

Investment modeling attempts to take into account as many variables as possible, but almost never starts with a clean slate. There is always a posit at the outset, and modeling either refutes it, supports it or straddles the fence. Modeling

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The Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $316.62) Raises 2024 Guidance, Beats on 2023 Earnings and Increases Dividend.

Cigna announced the sale of their Medicare Advantage business, with a planned close in 2025. The planned sale represents the complete exit by Cigna from government payor retiree healthcare programs. At a potential all-in price of $3.7 billion, the profit

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM-NYSE, $110.18 US) Provides a 2024 Revenue Forecast +20% above 2023 Rates.

TSM, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, surpassed analyst expectations for the final quarter of 2023. Revenue was $19.62 billion US, down 4.6% from the prior year. Earnings, at $1.44 per share, were down 23% from the $1.87 US reported

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Grupo Comercial Chedraui (CHDRAUIB-MX, $5.97 US) Announces 2024 Guidance.

Grupo Chedraui, the fast growing Mexican and US grocer, provided their modeling template on US and Mexican expansion. A total of 16 larger grocery stores (grocers and supercenters) as well as 100 of the smaller format (supercito) mini-grocers, for a

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If Lithium Ion Battery technology is Supplanted, am I in for a Complimentary Room Upgrade?

The entirety of the lithium-ion battery industry, as well as the major players in the EV automotive industry, fail to acknowledge the potentially fatal flaw in the marketing of their wares to consumers and governments; a basic accounting term known

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Gnostic Capital Portfolio Report for the Fiscal Quarter Ended 12/30/2023 and for Fiscal 2023.

The fiscal 4th quarter of 2023 produced a broadly based rally among all classes of equity index in North America. The DJIA increased by 12.5% in Q4. The S&P 500 advanced 11.2% and the NASDAQ Composite Index continued its turnaround

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Grupo Aeroportuario Del Sureste (ASR-NYSE, $262.64) Regulated Tariff Rate Base Determination for Coming 4 Years is Not Nearly as Bad as Was Feared.

ASUR, the operator of Mexican airports primarily known as the manager of the Cancun International Airport, received a Mexican rate determination that should be less punitive on the bottom line than was anticipated back in August. The outgoing president of

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Solvay SA (SOLB.BR) And Syensqo (SYENS) Complete Their Separation.

Solvay SA, the world’s largest producer of soda ash, has successfully separated their value added materials business, which trades under the name of Syensqo. Solvay shareholders, at the time of demerger, will receive shares in Syensqo pro rata to their

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The Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $300.58) Walks Away From a Takeover/Merger with Humana Inc. (HUM-NYSE, $472.88).

In a happy turn of events, Cigna management decided to end all negotiations with Humana Inc. on a combination. I have argued, backed by volumes of capital markets texts, that one of the most destructive capital markets transactions is a

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The Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $262.87) Contemplates Blowing the Last Three Years of Progress on a Highly Dilutive Acquisition of Humana Inc. (HUM-NYSE, $482.41).

Cigna Group and Humana Inc. shares both fell sharply today on a leaked rumor of a potential combination. Shareholders of Cigna and Humana were both flummoxed by the simultaneous decline; typically a takeover candidate rises in price on merger news,

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Cigna Group (CI-NYSE, $310.61) is Less Than one Quarter Away From Commencement of the Centene PBM Contract Start.

Cigna reported a strong earnings result for Q3. The commercially focused health insurer and second largest PBM (pharmacy benefit manager) in the United States produced a Q3 fiscal result ahead of Wall Street expectations. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-cigna-group-reports-strong-third-quarter-2023-results-raises-2023-adjusted-eps-revenue-and-cash-flow-outlook-301975561.html Cigna’s newest PBM contract win

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Everyone has a Plan Until They get Punched in the Mouth.

No plan survives contact with the enemy (Field Marshall Helmut von Moltke) Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth (Mike Tyson) The Mexican government announced a unilateral reduction in airport tariff fees for the publicly operated

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Wage Inflation may Force Central Bankers to Produce a Harder Recession than Most Currently Model into Investment Forecasts.

Reports that Waffle House employees demand a starting wage of $25 per hour bodes ill for the US economic fight against inflation. Waffle House staff, negotiating under the Union of Southern Service Workers, have gone on strike, demanding a $25

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Gnostic Capital Portfolio Return for the Fiscal Quarter Ended 09/29/23.

The fiscal quarter was all red ink for the major indices. The S&P 500 declined by 3.6%, the DJIA fell by 2.6% and the NASDAQ Composite Index declined by 4.1% for the third quarter of 2023. The Gnostic Portfolio was

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BJ’s Wholesale Club Holdings (BJ-NYSE, $71.51) Scoops Costco on the Hottest Retail Development Site in North Carolina.

The 100 + acre Southern Pines retail development is preparing to add BJs Wholesale Club to the list of prospective tenants. https://www.bizjournals.com/triangle/news/2023/09/13/bjs-wholesale-starbucks-morganton-park-south.html When completed, BJ’s Wholesale will report more locations in North Carolina than does Costco. Of perhaps greater competitive

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Mexico Displaces China as the United State’s Largest Trading Partner.

Mexico maintains position as largest trade partner of the US https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0711 https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-mexico-china-us-trade-opportunity/

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The Pitfall of Cherry Picking.

“Two Heads are better than one.” “It Takes a village to raise a child.” “It takes 2 flints to make a fire.” “If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together“. These quotes

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