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The Market in English – Economic Trends and Financial Analyses
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Interview «Trump Has Popped the Bubble of American Exceptionalism»

«Many investors have mistaken fiscal profligacy for innovation and productivity. America’s fiscal profligacy has come to an end, which means that American exceptionalism has come to an end»: Marko Papic. (Photo: Bloomberg)

«Trump Has Popped the Bubble of American Exceptionalism»

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, talks about the effects of President Trump’s tariff policy, his expectations for the gold price and the dollar – and he reveals why he is bullish on Europe.

Mark Dittli vor 1 Stunde

Interview «An America in Self Destruction Mode Is Seen With Great Pleasure in Beijing»

«Friedrich Merz has drawn absolutely the right conclusions: Europe first»: Joerg Wuttke.

Interview

«An America in Self Destruction Mode Is Seen With Great Pleasure in Beijing»

Joerg Wuttke, partner at consulting agency DGA and former President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, talks about the outcome of the National People's Congress in Beijing, Trump's tariff tantrums, and the future role of Europe.

Mark Dittli 14.03.2025

Interview «I Think Markets Are Heading for Trouble»

«I believe the next act in this play will be investors in government bonds becoming increasingly concerned about credit risk»: Kevin Duffy.

Interview

«I Think Markets Are Heading for Trouble»

Contrarian investor Kevin Duffy warns of the consequences of escalating trade tensions between the US and China. He shares his insights on the biggest risks, explains his enduring faith in free markets, and reveals his investment strategy in the current environment.

Christoph Gisiger 11.03.2025

In Times of Market Turmoil, Look For Basketballs Under Water

Market turmoil breeds opportunity. Look for stocks displaying relative strength – the «basketballs under water» – poised to surge once pressure eases.

Thierry Borgeat vor 5 Minuten

The Swiss National Bank Should Adopt a Target for its Equity Ratio

The SNB has considerable leeway in the amount of its profit distributions. What is missing, however, is a public discussion about the risks in the SNB’s balance sheet and the equity ratio it should hold.

Stefan Gerlach, Yvan Lengwiler & Charles Wyplosz 25.02.2025

Focus on the Top Line – The Bottom Line Will Follow

What if the secret to finding winners was not to chase net profits, but to focus on sales growth? Steve Jobs’ 1997 mantra turned Apple around – and it’s a principle that every investor needs to understand to find the next compounder.

Thierry Borgeat 11.02.2025

Interview Howard Marks: «The Idea That the Market Is Always Right Is Crazy»

«Investing is not about buying good things, but about buying things well – and if you don’t understand the difference, you shouldn’t be an investor»: Howard Marks. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Interview

Howard Marks: «The Idea That the Market Is Always Right Is Crazy»

Greed and fear are powerful drivers in financial markets. Few understand their impact better than Howard Marks. In this interview, the renowned value investor explains why market excesses keep happening, shares his thoughts on the current hype around artificial intelligence, and reveals where investors might find bargains.

Christoph Gisiger 03.02.2025

Bureaucracy vs. Corruption – Two Sides of the Same Coin

The terms «bureaucracy» and «corruption» often evoke distinct images. However, upon closer examination, these two phenomena share crucial similarities: they are united by their ability to misallocate resources, distort economic incentives, and erode public trust.

Alexander M. Ineichen vor 3 Stunden

English A Storm Is Brewing

English

A Storm Is Brewing

The US budget deficit is likely to surge under the new Trump administration, sparking concerns about the stability of the bond market. This, in turn, may have a ripple effect on equities and cryptocurrencies.

Charles Biderman vor 1 Stunde

Interview «We’ll See an Interest Rate Shock as Early as the First Quarter»

«If inflation normalizes at a level of around 3.5%, investors will want to own companies that have hard assets in the ground»: Larry McDonald.

Interview

«We’ll See an Interest Rate Shock as Early as the First Quarter»

Larry McDonald, creator of «The Bear Traps Report» and New York Times best-selling author, cautions that markets are severely underestimating the threat of persistent inflation. He explains what investors should prepare for in the new year and why commodity stocks will make a comeback.

Christoph Gisiger vor 4 Stunden

Interview Michael B. O'Higgins: «I prefer the Dogs of the World»

«Any simple strategy that becomes overly popular is likely to underperform until its popularity declines»: Michael B. O'Higgins. (Photo: O'Higgins AM)

Interview

Michael B. O'Higgins: «I prefer the Dogs of the World»

The inventor of the dividend strategy «Dogs of the Dow» explains why he no longer uses it himself in its original form and prefers to rely on other methods.

Ulrich W. Hanke ✉ 03.01.2025

Interview «The U.S. Equity Market Is Very Much Priced for Perfection»

«If Europe does hit the skids, then capital will flow into Treasuries. Europe’s weakness strengthens the US exceptionalism narrative»: Louis Gave. (Pictures: Laurent Burst)

Interview

«The U.S. Equity Market Is Very Much Priced for Perfection»

Louis-Vincent Gave, CEO and co-founder of Gavekal Research, talks about his expectations for the incoming Trump Administration, the possibility of a grand bargain between the USA and China, and his investment outlook for 2025.

Mark Dittli vor 2 Stunden

The Illusion of Safety in Diversification

Reducing risk while enhancing returns sounds like a perfect dream. But what if diversification, our supposed safety net, is holding us back? Let’s rethink investing: it's not about owning more but owning better.

Thierry Borgeat 23.12.2024

Interview «We Are Headed Towards a System of National Capitalism»

«Historically, every thirty or forty years monetary systems collapse. The current one, the one we have lived with since 1994, is collapsing in front of our eyes»: Russell Napier.

Interview

«We Are Headed Towards a System of National Capitalism»

Market strategist and historian Russell Napier outlines a future in which governments mandate where investors should deploy their capital. The global monetary system that has existed since 1994 is being radically restructured.

Mark Dittli ✉️ 13.12.2024

Interview «Interest Rates Are not Sticking to the Central Banks’ Script»

«I’m worried about the burden of debt that has accumulated, facilitated and even encouraged by exceptionally low interest rates over the past decade and a half»: Jim Grant. (Bild: Bloomberg)

Interview

«Interest Rates Are not Sticking to the Central Banks’ Script»

Despite the Fed easing monetary policy, the bond market is not willing to play along. Jim Grant, editor of «Grant’s Interest Rate Observer», explains why the renewed rise in yields is worrying and why he is bullish on precious metals and value stocks.

Christoph Gisiger and Mark Dittli vor 4 Stunden

Valuation Does not Matter – Until it Does

Businesses can fire on all cylinders, and yet a lost decade for their share price can loom as valuations stretch beyond reason. The lesson? History shows valuation does not matter – until, suddenly, it does.

Thierry Borgeat vor 44 Minuten

Interview «President Trump Is Going to Be Disciplined by the Bond Market»

«Voters didn’t elect Trump to begin a massive trade war. Especially in the context of prices, as tariffs would increase price levels»: Marko Papic. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Interview

«President Trump Is Going to Be Disciplined by the Bond Market»

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, warns that rising interest rates could stall the rally in equities. President Trump will focus on his true mandates and that does not necessarily mean a massive trade war.

Mark Dittli 15.11.2024

Interview «It’s Time to Position the Portfolio for Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar»

«I don’t know if everybody is ready for the idea that by the end of the year the Fed’s whole interest rate cutting campaign will be mostly done if not completely done»: Jim Bianco. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Interview

«It’s Time to Position the Portfolio for Rising Yields and a Stronger Dollar»

Donald Trump’s election and the Republican red wave are setting the financial markets in motion. Jim Bianco, President and Macro Strategist at Bianco Research, believes that the change of power in Washington will give the US economy a fresh boost. However, it also poses the risk of inflation flaring up again, which will be a challenge for investors.

Christoph Gisiger vor 2 Stunden

Interview «In Terms of Inflation, the Beast is not Tamed»

«It’s a little too early to tell whether it’s a soft landing or a no landing, but it sure doesn’t look like a hard landing»: Jeffrey Sherman (left) and Bill Campbell.

Interview

«In Terms of Inflation, the Beast is not Tamed»

Jeffrey Sherman and Bill Campbell, investment managers at DoubleLine, expect price pressures in the US economy to continue. They explain what the presidential election means for the economy and financial markets – and where they spot attractive opportunities for investments.

Christoph Gisiger 05.11.2024

Interview «China Hopes That America Under Trump Will Turn its Back on the World»

«Beijing is very enthusiastic about the fact that Trump will question NATO and America’s aid for Ukraine»: Joerg Wuttke.

Interview

«China Hopes That America Under Trump Will Turn its Back on the World»

Joerg Wuttke, Partner at consulting agency DGA and former President of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, on the latest stimulus measures from Beijing and how the US elections will influence the relationship between the US and China.

Mark Dittli 08.10.2024

Risk vs. Reward: Your Margin of Safety is Razor-Thin

The market’s over-reliance on a few giants is skewing risk-reward dynamics, squeezing your margin of safety to a razor-thin line. High valuations, shrinking diversification, and misplaced capital challenge investors to rethink conventional strategies.

Thierry Borgeat vor 2 Stunden

The Economy is Less Volatile in Switzerland than in the US and the Euro Area

We find that inflation and per capita income growth fluctuated less in Switzerland than in the euro area and the US during the period that Thomas Jordan was a member of the board of the SNB. Variables such as the exchange rate, the policy rate and bond yields also show lower volatility.

Karsten Junius vor 4 Stunden

Interview «The Future Winners Will Be in Sectors such as Industrials, Materials and Energy»

«In a pie chart of outcomes, the probability of a beautiful soft landing without a bond market riot is a narrow slice»: Marko Papic. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Interview

«The Future Winners Will Be in Sectors such as Industrials, Materials and Energy»

Marko Papic, Chief Strategist at BCA Research, talks about the risk of a bond riot in the US, scenarios for the presidential election, and the most attractive investment opportunities in the coming years.

Mark Dittli vor 1 Stunde

Interview «We Will See More Spikes in Inflation»

«We’re going to find more situations where the Fed takes a chance on inflation rising rather than having high unemployment»: Kenneth Rogoff. (Photo: Bloomberg)

Interview

«We Will See More Spikes in Inflation»

Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, argues that the financial markets are at a turning point. In his view, investors must brace themselves for an environment with higher inflation, higher interest rates and higher volatility in the coming years.

Christoph Gisiger vor 3 Stunden

Boring is Good

In a world addicted to instant gratification, the greatest investment advantage lies in patience. High quality, «boring» stocks are persistently undervalued and offer superior returns over time. This challenges conventional wisdom and proves: boring is good.

Thierry Borgeat vor 1 Stunde

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