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They're Hiding the Silent Depression That Did Happen December 01, 2023
Fifteen years ago this month, amidst the unholy darkness some daylight had emerged; at least according to the official version. The fact it had shown through with Chinese characteristics was actually an invited development. Even President Bush, the l...
Nothing Has Materially Changed Since August 2007 November 17, 2023
Wall Street was absolutely abuzz. The day before, it all seemed to be going just fine. Then, bam, a hammer blow to the face. At least that was how it was described by the financial press. The government had gone way too far and now it was going to ha...
The Fed Is Ready To Start Digging Out Of the Avalanche November 03, 2023
Interest rate swap spreads have gone ballistic this month, a sign that things are not well across the eurodollar’s world. And that’s putting it mildly. The 10-year spread which compares the rate for receiving/paying fixed on a 10-year interest rate s...
The Chain Linking Rome and Mexico City To You and Me October 20, 2023
What does the credibility of the Italian government have to do with the fortunes of Mexico’s peso? Those are two things most people would never connect yet they aren’t just drawn together by a common thread, that same thread also ties together pretty...
The Cure For High Prices That Weren't Actually Inflation October 06, 2023
Could it really have been that fast? Just last week I was writing here in this space that Saudi Arabia was likely to regret its big gamble. The oil-producing giant had bet the world’s fate, seemingly, on the idea the global economy would be strong en...
The Dollar Is Back To Rampaging Against Every Major Currency September 29, 2023
You know what they say about when you have “friends” like these. Trading across the oil market this week is one for the books, if the familiar set of them. The WTI curve blew way out in a matter of days as desperate oil traders sought to pay – throug...
Dots: Stabs In the Dark Without Any Substance September 22, 2023
Revenge of the dots. Sort of. The Federal Reserve hit the pause button for the second time this year this week, yet all anyone wanted to talk about was next year. Maybe there will be another rate hike from policymakers in 2023, maybe not. What comes ...
The Problem Isn't the Beige Book, It's Those Compiling It September 08, 2023
Back in 1983, Congressman Walter E. Fauntroy wasn’t too happy with the state of the economy. Who could have blamed him? In the final stage of seventeen terrible years of inflation, the US economy fell into not one but two deep recessions. The only si...
'Soft Landings' Are Another Made Up Economic Notion September 01, 2023
Richard Nixon really did not like even the idea of recession. In one sense, you can’t fault the guy since he was constantly blamed for them. This was a relatively new idea, too, that somehow Presidents are responsible for economic circumstances acros...
The Real Challenge Is Broad Understanding of the STL Fed Model August 11, 2023
He was once called the Harry Truman of the Federal Reserve. It was, by all accounts, a well-deserved reputation. During his tenure atop the St. Louis branch during some of the most tumultuous years, Darryl Francis would attain the status of a true ma...
The Bigger Problem Re Fitch Is Economics Being Swapped for economics August 04, 2023
There was a time when it was feared by everyone. The most powerful people in the world were forced to concede to its every whim, the tiniest of moves. Any hint of dismay would set off an immediate chain reaction through the loftiest corridors of gove...
China's Economic Struggles Are Representative of Global Struggles July 31, 2023
Communist regimes will always feature a fair amount of palace intrigue, a feature not a bug. To be fair, democratic societies aren’t free from the same, it is just done somewhat differently (in case you hadn’t noticed). Top-level shuffles aren’t alwa...
If Powell Wants Higher Rates, He Should Ask Why He's Not Getting Them July 21, 2023
On November 22, 1798, the US Navy suffered its first true defeat when the USS Retaliation yielded its colors without firing a single cannon. What made the event truly noteworthy was to whom its commander, William Bainbridge, was surrendering. Having ...
Even If Jerome Powell Is Successful, We Still Lose July 07, 2023
In some ways it has been like two heavyweight sluggers battling it out over the course of an extended bout, exchanging one haymaker after another. With each monstrous blow, the receiver is staggered temporarily only to reform and then unleash one of ...
What's Monetary About Interest Rates? June 23, 2023
In October 2018, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard claimed his organization had killed the work of ancient economist AW Phillips. It was the latter who has had his name, voluntary or not, attached to the eponymous curve at the center of this and ...