As a reminder investing is a game of probabilities. So even if I am getting this completely wrong, you should still rest assured that my process is rock solid.
With that said, let’s start.
Global Macro
- There won’t be a recession in nominal terms. But the world will produce less stuff, so that counts as a recession in real terms. Pundits will be confused.
- In the capital markets conditions are set for a serious liquidity event. Not sure if it happens, but I am entering the year with this bearish tilt, and I am not ruling out a quick rebound.
- Dollar will be strengthening again. DXY will touch 120.
- Gold will be volatile. Potentially on the upside, but I am not a buyer yet.
- No opinion on US government bonds. All the grown-ups think yields are going lower. It could get really amusing if they would not.
- Tanker rates will continue to be headed higher. Container rates will not. Shy away from VLGC because of the order book.
- China will attempt to stimulate throughout the year. But it will be hard to second guess.
- Ongoing conflict between the superpowers will not escalate visibly.
Real-Estate
- Real Estate will continue to be under pressure. More funds will be gating withdrawals.
- Real-Estate in China, Australia, Canada, Silicon Valley, you name it; these all have topped.
- Office Space and malls continue to see anemic foot fall.
- Private equity will enjoy the ability not to mark to market.
US Equities
- While in 2022 saw pretty orderly selling in public equities, we will have at least one serious down day in 2023. Maybe even the circuit breakers will be hit.
- S&P will wander below the lows seen in 2022. I am looking at 3300 and below.
- Margins have to be down. If margins are not down in H2 2023, I will be very confused.
- WeWork and few others may file for protection.
Big tech
- You will be able to buy AAPL below $100, but I won’t be a buyer.
- AMZN will be cheaper too. Cloud spend growth will deteriorate significantly. Any small SaaS that is not cash flow positive and does not have funding may blow up.
- Venture funds in a need to sell their maturing investments in 2023 will be given a leeway to postpone the transactions.
- PPC Clicks will be cheaper and less useful. Google’s revenue growth will slow considerably.
Europe
- Nat gas (TTF futures) will run up in the summer again, then ease a bit, but will end the year higher.
- ECB will continue raising rates until the BTP spreads blow up historically. ECB will then change its course, but only after Italy’s government is replaced with EU friendly technocrats.
Labour
- Labour component of the production function will remain undersupplied until 2050.
- Labour share of income will continue to growth even though the layoffs.
- Many new unions are formed. Strikes become more common. Demands of a shorter work week start to gain traction.
Awesome Goat
- I will hit the magical number of 100 users on the platform. And I will happily spend sleepless nights fixing bugs for them.
- The accounts will probably continue to be free throughout the year.
More Serious Predictions
- People will continue to lose sense of humor. Top scientists will discuss banning jokes as these do not contribute to GDP and only confuse ChatGPT. The World Economic Forum will tacitly agree.
- The bots will finally be able to prove they are human to other bots (AI will get better in filing reCaptcha). As a result human’s will be forced to leave the web for the bots only.
- Chatter about Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and JFK murder will continue, but in 2023 they will finally become the top priority for fact checkers.
- Unrest in China calms down. And workers in the Iphone factory will be given a gym redesign.