gnosticcapital.com /category/open-blog/
Open Blog | Gnostic Capital Management - Randolph McDuff
Static Web Parser
By Costco standards, the Q4 earnings conference call represented a woodshed beat-down. During the call Q&A, not a SINGLE analyst congratulated Costco on the quarterly result. Rather, the tone of the questioning, by Wall Street standards, was more along the…
“The Bank of England said it will buy long-dated British government bonds to “whatever scale is necessary” in order to restore orderly market conditions.” https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/economy/bank-england-bond-buying-crash Central banks are keenly aware that one of the systemic risks that can occur due…
The Gnostic Capital Portfolio return for the fiscal quarter ended September 30th, 2022, was -3.1%. On June 30th, the portfolio was valued at $594.77 USD per share and on September 30th, the portfolio was valued at $576.60 per share. For…
Central to my long thesis on Grupo Chedraui is a rollout of the Smart & Final cash and carry grocery warehouse format. This 254-store warehouse retailer (think of a smaller version of Costco specializing in groceries and food supplies without…
Consolidated operating margins at UNH touched 9.2% for the quarter. Consolidated EBITDA margins surpassed 10.2% for the quarter. At the present rates of growth and factoring in the new acquisition that closed last month, the Optum division stands to surpass…
(Results converted from MX Pesos to USD using rate of 20.1246 MX Pesos to USD on 09/30/22.) Pacific Airport Group, the largest operator, by passenger volumes, of airports in Mexico, posted a fiscal result for the third quarter of 2022…
(All figures converted from MX pesos to USD at the exchange rate of 20.0925 pesos per USD). Asur reported airport and concession revenues of $290.5 million US for the third quarter of 2022. EBITDA of $202.4 million in the quarter…
(All prices converted from MX peso to US Dollars at the rate of 20.0925 pesos per US dollar). Grupo Chedraui reported Q3 revenues of $3.22 billion US. Gross operating profits rose year over year to 23.4%, up from 22.6%. Net…
Cigna, like most other major health maintenance organizations, reported a record profit for the third quarter ended September 30th, 2022. Ongoing revenue was $45.28 billion for the quarter. Drug costs were up, medical expenses were down. Overall, Cigna generated an…
In a recent poll, up to 73% of those who have signed on to participate in the US student loan forgiveness program have stated an intention to utilize a portion of the proceeds towards travel rather than for savings or…
Costco is one of the most widely mythologized retailers on the planet today. Many customers, myself included, as well as almost all of the long term employees of Costco, are shareholders in the corporation. We marvel at the ability of…
American retail sales for the month of November declined by a greater level than was previously forecast. Adjusted for inflation, all retail categories, save grocery and restaurants, experienced a net revenue decline for the month. Furniture, electronics, sporting goods, motor…
The purchase, priced at roughly 3X EV/EBITDA, represents an example of the fiscal discipline involved in the expansion of Chedraui throughout its competitive markets. In addition to the 36 stores under the banners Arteli, Arteli Express and Aká Superbodega, the…
(All figures are quoted in USD unless otherwise stated) For the fiscal quarter ended 12/30/2022, the Gnostic Global Portfolio closed with a value of $677.31. This compares to the valuation for the 3rd quarter ended 09/30/22 at $576.60, resulting in…
Total passenger traffic at all Mexican airports operated by ASUR was 39.5 million, up from 34.2 million in 2019. 2019 represented the previous peak year prior to Covid-19 travel restrictions and is considered the representative baseline year (normalized) for travel…
(all figures reported in USD unless otherwise stated) Novo Nordisk represents one of the top 7 investment positions in the Gnostic Model Portfolio Novo Nordisk, a Danish company, is the largest producer of diabetes and prescription weight loss medicines on…
Of particular interest is the corporate indication that management of Chedraui intends to, more or less, eliminate all long term debts by the end of 2023 via internally generated cash flow. This balance sheet expectation accompanies the fastest projected store…
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2023/01/17/2589525/0/en/Grupo-Aeroportuario-del-Pacifico-Announces-Growth-Guidance-for-the-Full-Year-2023.html 2023 will represent a turning point for year over year comparisons by analysts. Until the end of 2022, analysts were appraising revenue and income targets of airlines and airports against 2019 figures. This was due to the mandated travel…
ASUR likely closed out fiscal 2022 with total long term debts of just $600 million US. Net passenger revenues likely were in the $1.14 billion range for 2022. EBITDA was possibly as high as $800 million. Concrete terminals and runways…
Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Thursday the January CPI report showed no improvement in underlying inflation, it was clear that inflation was not coming down as quickly as market participants were projecting and her main message is that…
All figures are expressed in USD unless otherwise stated. Mexican pesos are converted to USD at the fiscal 2022 year end rate of 1 MX peso = $.0514 USD In Q4, food inflation continued to provide an impressive tailwind for…
(All figures are reported in US dollars unless otherwise stated and are converted from MX pesos at the exchange rate of 1 MX pesos = $.0514 USD) ASUR, the operator of the Cancun International Airport and other regional airports in…
BJ’s Wholesale, the third largest and fastest growing membership wholesale retailer in the United States, reported a fiscal result that indicates the benefits of an inflationary tailwind for any company selling a disproportionate percentage of groceries in their revenue mix.…
At the general ordinary annual meeting to be held on April 26th, ASUR will vote upon approval of the annual dividend. An ordinary cash dividend in the amount of 99.3 pesos per ADS is proposed, as is a special dividend…
Until now, almost all of my commentaries about inflation have been focused on consumers and governments. Consumers spend too much, while already leveraged governments refuse to support the efforts of central bankers to slow inflation by spending more money, not…