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President Trump Misses What's Really Missing from Monetary Policy October 05, 2018
Fed Chairs and their Presidents. The central bank is supposed to be independent, of course, but it’s not always been the case that either party sees it that way. More often than not, there is tremendous coordination among policy goals. Ten years ago ...
Central Bankers Can't Solve What They Don't Understand October 19, 2018
Since reopening from its Golden Week National Holiday, Chinese markets have plunged. The benchmark Shanghai SSE stock index is down nearly 12% (through yesterday) in just nine trading sessions. It is an obvious liquidation event. The loser in the tra...
Central Bankers Really Have No Idea What They're Doing with Money October 26, 2018
The ECB this week maintained its commitment to steadfast blindness. Don’t worry, they’ve done this before. Twice, actually. At least in 2018 they are only pledging to end what will be nearly four years of quantitative easing. There hasn’t been any ea...
Central Bankers Aren't Capable of Evolving With Actual Data November 02, 2018
For commodity investors, a roll yield opportunity can be everything. By rolling over a short-term contract into a longer dated one, speculators can profit off the futures curve regardless of short-term movements in the spot price. It helps police the...
Central Bankers Are Always the Last to Find Out November 09, 2018
Way back in September 2012, the day after Ben Bernanke panicked into QE3, the IMF and World Bank announced that both organizations’ annual board meetings for the year 2015 would be held jointly in Lima, Peru. The concurrence of those two events may n...
Global Economic Rebirth Will Have to Start at Home November 16, 2018
In a country now infamous for false dawns, the one in 1991 really stands out. The Japanese economy had spent the decade of the eighties dominating. There was little little Japan couldn’t accomplish. Even missteps in monetary policy, ignorance more th...
Today's Leaders Don't Even Know What Questions to Ask December 07, 2018
At the Hotel Matignon, Paris, early in the morning of June 7, 1936, the 40-hour workweek was born. Delivered as these things usually are out from the depths of crisis and unrest, France’s Popular Front under Léon Blum had few palatable alternatives. ...
Markets See the Gathering Downside That Powell Does Not December 14, 2018
“At least Iowa is going to hell slower than everywhere else.” That was Charles Evan’s joke to try and lighten the mood. As President of the Chicago branch of the Federal Reserve, it was his job to summarize business prospects throughout the Seventh D...
In Its Fight With the Fed, the Bond Market Wins Every Time December 21, 2018
The Federal Reserve continues to believe that the US labor market is exceedingly tight, and that in the end will prove decisive. Markets globally disagree, including but for more than economic circumstances in the United States. Once again, market ve...
The Boom Died Months Ago, and Had Nothing To Do With Rate Hikes December 28, 2018
There was excitement all over that particular Thursday. Stocks were up, the S&P 500 rising by more than 2%. It was the continuation of relief that began a few days before. The big one, though, was oil. WTI rocketed by 10%, one of the largest daily ga...
Bonds Keep Winning Their Battle With Economists January 04, 2019
The stock market was rocked by another piece of bad news, and that was only the beginning. Key NASDAQ darling, one of the so-called FANGs, Apple announced quarterly earnings that included a rare cut to its sales forecast. It unleashed a flash crash y...
It's All Coming Apart At the Seams As the Errors Multiply January 11, 2019
The unemployment rate fell within the range Economists have defined for full employment years ago. In early 2015, in fact. All the most sophisticated econometric models ever produced declared the moment had arrived, full and complete recovery at long...
Global Economy Is About to Find Out What Comes After Sadness January 18, 2019
It was by their recent standards a hugely successful campaign for the Cleveland Browns of the National Football League. Before this last season, the lovable losers had only managed a single victory out of their previous thirty-five games. Failing to ...
The Global Economy Is Set to Find Out What Comes After Sadness January 18, 2019
It was by their recent standards a hugely successful campaign for the Cleveland Browns of the National Football League. Before this last season, the lovable losers had only managed a single victory out of their previous thirty-five games. Failing to ...
Global Economy Moved Past Sputtering, and Into Downturn January 25, 2019
The bad economic news has spread, its pace quickening. China reported its worst quarterly growth in decades. Trade is contracting. Germany’s industry is declining at a rate not seen since Europe’s last recession. Even Canada is leading the way forwar...
It Is Always Everything Else But the One Thing That's Wrong February 01, 2019
The world doesn’t seem to realize it yet, but Japan has crept ever closer even on the islands. Last year at this time, Bank of Japan officials were openly talking about finally exiting from QQE and maybe even ZIRP. Inflation was on the rise, they bel...